EURUSD: Rotational Profile Ahead of the FOMC

19 дек. 2018 г.

The correlations indicate there is only one direction to endorse this market from a macro view, and that’s be Euro buyers. However, we need discounted prices to find these opportunities. The chance was presented last Friday circa 1.13. At current levels, unless you are an intraday trader, I can’t envision the value in jumping on Euro buys. Most importantly, with the FOMC just hours away, it will soon be ‘reset’ time for the price, therefore be patient for the next clues to reveal themselves.

In the daily, we can clearly see a long tail refuting to accept levels above 1.14, which marries well with the notion that ahead of the FOMC, this was a market poised to still exhibit a rotational profile. On the hourly, if you have an inclination to engage in intraday activity, the biases have turned more constructive, with buyers exerting the overall control of the hourly chart after successfully taking out the descending trendline originating from the Dec 10 high. However, be aware, the volume profile printed on Tuesday (one single distribution) does vindicate my point of a market with rotational traits, in other words, low risk of breakouts of the range extremes. Today’s key levels have been circled in the hourly chart. Consider theses the areas with the highest interest ahead of the FOMC.