Key Levels to Watch Amid Political Turmoil

15 июл.

It’s been a summer marked by escalating political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic for EUR/USD. The tumultuous French elections earlier in the month have been followed by an assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend. Against this backdrop of rising political tension, let’s examine the key levels to watch on EUR/USD this week.

EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart

Having gapped higher on July 1st, EUR/USD has had a strong month so far, demonstrating a consistent short-term uptrend characterised by multiple up days and relatively few down days.

This rally has taken prices back towards a key area of resistance created by the May-June swing highs. A resistance zone can be drawn from the highest high to the highest close during the May-June top.

Friday’s price action closed at the edge of the resistance zone, and EUR/USD has started the week lower following the attempted assassination of former President Trump over the weekend, causing risk aversion to rise as traders seek safety in the US dollar.


Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart

Dropping down to the EUR/USD hourly candle chart reveals a trendline fan created by mapping the recent series of higher swing lows. Momentum traders can potentially use the ascending trendlines to time buying pullbacks into EUR/USD’s uptrend.

However, this timeframe also reveals the parameters of today’s negative price gap. The top of the gap coincides with the bottom of the resistance zone, reinforcing the significance of the resistance zone. Reversal or counter-trend traders could potentially use the gap for timing short trades, waiting for the gap to close before entering a short position with a stop above the resistance zone.


Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

EUR/USD Calendar Check:

Tuesday, July 16th:
• US Retail Sales

Wednesday, July 17th:
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
• US Industrial Production
• Fed’s Beige Book

Thursday, July 18th:
• ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• ECB Press Conference
• US Initial Jobless Claims

Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.

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