FOMC Setup on EUR/USD

17 дек. 2018 г.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical support). A rate hike is an indication of tightening monetary policy, which fundamentally strengthens the dollar against other currencies. This will produce a down move on the EUR/USD (want to sell EUR for USD).

If rates remain neutral (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken considerably (up move on EUR/USD).

If rates are lowered (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken quite rapidly (up move on EUR/USD).