EURUSD: struggle continues
At the start of the New Year and new trading sessions, the US inflation data were published. Figures show that inflation in December reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, a bit higher from forecasted 3.2%. Core inflation remained a bit elevated at level of 3.9% and higher from expected 3.8% for the end of 2023. At the same time, the Producers Price Index was down by 0.1% in December on a monthly basis, while core PPI was left unchanged in December, compared to November`s figures.
Exports in Germany are modestly picking up, reaching a 3.7% increase in November compared to October. This was a huge increase, considering that the market was expecting to see a 0.3% increase for November. At the same time, the Consumer Confidence in the Euro Zone continues to move within a negative territory in December, reaching -15.0, but still modestly better from the market estimate of -15.1. Unemployment rate in the Euro Area in November was 6.4%, a bit better from expected 6.5%.
Previous week was relatively quiet on the eurusd market, considering that there has not been too much important news released at the beginning of the year. The currency pair briefly tested the 1.088 level, while the majority of deals were moving around 1.09 level. The highest level reached during the week was 1.098. The RSI is currently moving around the level of 50, implying that the market is still gearing to choose the trading side. At the beginning of the year, the MA50 crossed the MA200 counterpart from the downside, creating the so-called “golden cross” in technical analysis. This implies a high probability for a trend change in the coming period, concretely, the potential for future weakening of the USD. Whether this potential will be exercised, we will see in the future period.
During the previous week, the eurusd pair was testing the market for the downside, however, without too much success. The currency pair returned to the levels above the 1.09. The resistance line at 1.10 has not been tested on this occasion, which leaves some space for testing in the week ahead. On the opposite side, there is currently a lower probability that the support line at 1.08 could be tested in the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Yearly GDP Growth for Germany, Inflation rate for Germany for December, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for January for both Germany and the Euro Area, Inflation Rate for December for the Euro Area, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD: Retail Sales for December, Building Permits Preliminary for December, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary for January
Exports in Germany are modestly picking up, reaching a 3.7% increase in November compared to October. This was a huge increase, considering that the market was expecting to see a 0.3% increase for November. At the same time, the Consumer Confidence in the Euro Zone continues to move within a negative territory in December, reaching -15.0, but still modestly better from the market estimate of -15.1. Unemployment rate in the Euro Area in November was 6.4%, a bit better from expected 6.5%.
Previous week was relatively quiet on the eurusd market, considering that there has not been too much important news released at the beginning of the year. The currency pair briefly tested the 1.088 level, while the majority of deals were moving around 1.09 level. The highest level reached during the week was 1.098. The RSI is currently moving around the level of 50, implying that the market is still gearing to choose the trading side. At the beginning of the year, the MA50 crossed the MA200 counterpart from the downside, creating the so-called “golden cross” in technical analysis. This implies a high probability for a trend change in the coming period, concretely, the potential for future weakening of the USD. Whether this potential will be exercised, we will see in the future period.
During the previous week, the eurusd pair was testing the market for the downside, however, without too much success. The currency pair returned to the levels above the 1.09. The resistance line at 1.10 has not been tested on this occasion, which leaves some space for testing in the week ahead. On the opposite side, there is currently a lower probability that the support line at 1.08 could be tested in the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Yearly GDP Growth for Germany, Inflation rate for Germany for December, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for January for both Germany and the Euro Area, Inflation Rate for December for the Euro Area, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD: Retail Sales for December, Building Permits Preliminary for December, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary for January
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