EURUSD Long Term View part 5, Double Bottom

27 мар. 2019 г.

The previous 2 analysis worked out perfectly, using sentiment analysis instead of TA :). Fooling bulls and bears with making one trap after the other. Anyway, were in the price range what i was hoping to see again when making that analysis, so assuming the double bottom on the daily is still in play, we should a low forming in this range now the coming days. Ideally we get to see a wedge form on the right, because that would make an entry much easier. Since this is a long term trade for me, i will be scaling in my first portion at the current price. I want to increase the position in the 1.124/1.128 range. The low in March will be the level where i start to decrease my position with probably a max around 1.15. So i wont be using a stop loss for a trade like this, but will decrease the position when it goes against me.

Trades like these, need a TA and FA vision and believe in it. You can not only rely on TA in this case. That means the risks are a bit higher at the start, but the reward can be very big if it works out. For example my big short play on the DAX that started at the high of 2018 and has become a dream play. But sometimes they fail completely as well, like my Cisco short from 2 months ago. But in the end, it's about making sure the profits are bigger than the losses.




Previous analysis:

28 мар. 2019 г.

Заметка

The wedge failed completely here, never even made that second bounce before the final drop. Now it made a smaller one where it also dropped out of. So i am still in with my first batch, waiting for a bit more confirmation here because at the moment it looks too bad. If it can hang at the current price and move back in the small wedge, we usually see a countermove. If that happens, i will probably buy my second batch. Nr 3 and 4 will have to wait a bit more,