EURUSD: Massive uptrend failure

25 окт. 2015 г.

In my previous analysis I was looking for uptrend continuation after price confirmed a weekly uptrend using time at mode.
This pair had been coiling very tightly until it broke up initially, but the follow through has shown the power of the bears.
After Mario Draghi's speech, evidently we had a lapsus of complete agreement between market participants, a paradigm shift of massive scale, which led to a relentless selloff under all support levels. There simply were no buy orders to even execute stop losses for some time.

Many people are seeing patterns, wave analysis, fibonacci support, Gann lines, and all sort of technical tools that tell them to buy the Euro down here. In my case, I don't subscribe to any of these, but with my own tools I can define a series of targets, which posess a relatively moderate probability of attainment, and also of reversal or retracement once hit.
Time at mode works specially well after extended consolidations, with lower and lower volatility, which is what we had in the weekly chart here, so I'd grade these lower targets with a considerable probability of being achieved during this year.

I will be hosting a free webinar this week, to introduce traders to the techniques that I am using, which are the fruiton of Tim West's mentoring, as well as my own experience with them in the Forex space, which has its own characteristics and challenges. One of them being the reduced liquidity of certain crosses, and the problems this creates when using more standard 'diagonal type' thinking, like wave analysis. I will discuss how market types affect systems' performance, and what the 'Holy Grail' of trading Forex really is. It will surprise many to know the answer to this.
Stay tuned for more details on how to join it.

If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Contact me via skype or pm for more details.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com

27 окт. 2015 г.

Заметка

Keep your mind open to different scenarios, based on conditionals:



I connect the highest lows and lowest highs to form trendlines and channels...gives good extra information to contrast to the profile data.
We might see one more push down before any significant retrace, it's starting to look like 3 waves down from the recent peak before the selloff. Usually, impulses end structures...what is this ending then? or is it the beginning of a new structure?

Might not be sharp enough to warrant a new structure, and equities look frail, so I'm inclined to keep my mind open to going long after we get confirmation. In case the short signal fails and we get a massive downtrend failure ;)

I'm setting up everything for the webinar, stay tuned.

28 окт. 2015 г.

Сделка активна

In case the rally isn't short lived, I'm long. I expect the Fed news to drive this trade close to that target. I don't know if the move down is done, but for now, this is the current situation.

28 окт. 2015 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

I closes at 0.25% loss. I don't like the look.

28 окт. 2015 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

I took a short under today's open, good 2:1 trade.

29 окт. 2015 г.

Заметка

Keep close watch of the Germany data coming out, and the US jobs data as well. Tomorrow will be interesting.

29 окт. 2015 г.

Заметка

Low volume support holding.
Here's the link for today's webinar: youtube.com/watch?v=830QXuSWSck
I'll cover EURUSD and USDCAD.

16 нояб. 2015 г.

Заметка

Target #1 and #2 hit.