6/11/25 Can Bulls Create a PB or More Downside?

1. Yesterday’s candlestick (Wednesday, Nov 5) was an inside bear bar closing near its low.
   
2. In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
   
3. The market traded sideways for the day and closed near its low.
   
4. The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
   
5. They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
   
6. To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
   
7. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
   
8. The current move has formed a 12-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
   
9. The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 6).
   
10. Production: November figures are yet to be released.
    
11. Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
    
12. Exports: ITS is down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
    
13. Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 12-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
    
14. The market remains Always-In-Short.
    
15. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
    
16. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
    
17. The bears broke below the Nov 3 low last night, but there was no follow-through selling.
    
18. For today, (Nov 6), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
    

Andrew