2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - By now I have wrote more than enough, that the last weeks formed the top for the next months or years and my top call was pretty fucking close. Today was another example for a change of market character. Bulls got trapped again and now everyone knows, that the bulls are running for the exits to secure the profits. Most indexes are getting close to their big bull trend lines from 2023-10 and that’s where we can expect the bigger dead cat bounce, before we sell off to much lower lows for good.
Commodities - Gold tested the broken bull channel and sold off again. Currently best to trade on 1h or higher time frame. My weekly outlook is spot on so far. Expecting 2300 over the next 2-3 weeks.
Oil much much stronger selling now than anticipated but overall read on the weekly was amazing. Bulls are due for a bounce. Not interested in shorts before we had a pullback. Daily ema is 170 ticks away, reasonable target.
Bitcoin - Sideways. Bulls defending the bull gap but bears sold rips. Daily ema still far away. Wait for a big breakout with follow through and enter in the direction. Odds still favor the bulls for another leg up.
dax futures
comment: Bears actually managed to make the Globex high the high of the day and sold off for 200 points from y close. It could have been strong enough today, to make most bulls give up, which would mean they will try to buy around 18300 again. Will see tomorrow. Odds favoring the bears for more downside to 18300. 1h 20ema is holding like a champ.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18900
bull case: Bulls need a strong close above the 1h 20ema, which would also mean a breakout above the bear channel. If they could manage that, there is no reason to not retest the highs again. As of now, odds do not favor the bulls here. Best they could hope for is staying above 18400 and trade sideways.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Bears had a trending trading range day again. Bears see another lower high at 18774 and want lower lows below 18000 now. They formed a decent bear channel and since we are trading at the upper channel line, they want continued selling to reach the bottom again. The big triangle bull trend line on the daily chart currently runs at around 18300, so this is their first target. Will see if they can break below when we get there.
Invalidation is above 18520.
short term: Bearish. We are near the upper bear channel line and market clearly wants to go down. Invalid above 18520.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go.
trade of the day: Two sided trading all day, which means you should mark the mid of the range and try fading the extremes. Market could not find buyers above the open price 18540 and market tried to get above y low 4 times. Shorting any of those attempts with a stop above 18600 was reasonable.
overall market comment
Indexes - By now I have wrote more than enough, that the last weeks formed the top for the next months or years and my top call was pretty fucking close. Today was another example for a change of market character. Bulls got trapped again and now everyone knows, that the bulls are running for the exits to secure the profits. Most indexes are getting close to their big bull trend lines from 2023-10 and that’s where we can expect the bigger dead cat bounce, before we sell off to much lower lows for good.
Commodities - Gold tested the broken bull channel and sold off again. Currently best to trade on 1h or higher time frame. My weekly outlook is spot on so far. Expecting 2300 over the next 2-3 weeks.
Oil much much stronger selling now than anticipated but overall read on the weekly was amazing. Bulls are due for a bounce. Not interested in shorts before we had a pullback. Daily ema is 170 ticks away, reasonable target.
Bitcoin - Sideways. Bulls defending the bull gap but bears sold rips. Daily ema still far away. Wait for a big breakout with follow through and enter in the direction. Odds still favor the bulls for another leg up.
dax futures
comment: Bears actually managed to make the Globex high the high of the day and sold off for 200 points from y close. It could have been strong enough today, to make most bulls give up, which would mean they will try to buy around 18300 again. Will see tomorrow. Odds favoring the bears for more downside to 18300. 1h 20ema is holding like a champ.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18900
bull case: Bulls need a strong close above the 1h 20ema, which would also mean a breakout above the bear channel. If they could manage that, there is no reason to not retest the highs again. As of now, odds do not favor the bulls here. Best they could hope for is staying above 18400 and trade sideways.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Bears had a trending trading range day again. Bears see another lower high at 18774 and want lower lows below 18000 now. They formed a decent bear channel and since we are trading at the upper channel line, they want continued selling to reach the bottom again. The big triangle bull trend line on the daily chart currently runs at around 18300, so this is their first target. Will see if they can break below when we get there.
Invalidation is above 18520.
short term: Bearish. We are near the upper bear channel line and market clearly wants to go down. Invalid above 18520.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go.
trade of the day: Two sided trading all day, which means you should mark the mid of the range and try fading the extremes. Market could not find buyers above the open price 18540 and market tried to get above y low 4 times. Shorting any of those attempts with a stop above 18600 was reasonable.
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