Trading Idea Update: GBP/JPY 30M - Bearish Setup After Liquidity

20 нояб.

In this updated GBP/JPY 30-minute chart analysis, the market has continued to develop in line with our previous expectations. We're still targeting a bearish move based on ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, but there are a few key updates to take note of. Here's the updated breakdown:

Liquidity Clearance
The Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above the previous highs has been cleared, as price aggressively moved higher, taking out stops and allowing smart money to accumulate positions. This liquidity grab is now complete, opening the door for a potential bearish reversal.

Fair Value Gap (FVG) Mitigation
Price is currently mitigating a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which aligns with a previous imbalance between buyers and sellers. This FVG acts as a premium zone for initiating short positions. The FVG also aligns with the high of the Asian session, adding more confluence to this level as a potential zone for a bearish reversal.

Higher Time-Frame Confluence
There is a H1 Order Block and imbalance (highlighted in red) above the current price, which suggests that price could still push higher before a significant drop. This level represents an area where smart money may look to finalize their liquidity hunt by sweeping the current highs before reversing.

Bearish Bias with Alternative Scenario
While the current plan is to look for shorting opportunities within the FVG zone (green), we must be cautious of the possibility that price could push further up to clear the current highs and tap into the H1 Order Block (red zone). If this happens, the market would still align with the bearish bias, but we may need to wait for a higher entry confirmation.

Thus, two scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1: Price reverses from the current FVG zone after mitigation, confirming a bearish entry model (e.g., CHOCH, BMS).
Scenario 2: Price pushes higher into the H1 Order Block (red zone) before initiating the fall, clearing the current local highs and completing the liquidity hunt.
Awaiting Bearish Entry Model
We are still waiting for a bearish entry model to confirm the reversal. This could come in the form of a lower time-frame Change of Character (CHOCH) or Break of Market Structure (BMS) once we see a rejection from the FVG or the higher H1 zone.

Asian Session Confluence
The chart highlights the Asian session high and liquidity grab, providing further confluence that smart money has engineered a stop hunt during low-volume hours. This often sets the stage for a reversal during the London or New York sessions.

Execution Plan
Entry: Look for bearish confirmations within the current FVG zone or the H1 Order Block (if price pushes higher).
Stop Loss: If entering off the FVG zone, place stops above the current highs. If entering off the H1 Order Block, place stops above the 198.000 level to protect against further liquidity grabs.
Take Profit: Target the previous lows around 195.200, with extended targets towards 193.500 if the full bearish reversal unfolds.
Summary
The bearish bias remains intact, with liquidity now cleared and price mitigating the FVG. We are awaiting confirmation of a reversal entry model to initiate short positions. Alternatively, price could push higher into the H1 Order Block before falling, but the overall expectation is a bearish continuation once liquidity is fully hunted.