Potential GBPJPY LONG

3 янв. 2020 г.

1. Why are you buying/selling this pair FUNDAMENTALLY?
I like the fundamental strength of GBP - ever since the Toris party won the majority seats in 2019, the most they ever had since Margaret Thatcher, now the Brexit is for sure and once we have more certainty into the sentimental factor, the shift will slowly turn back to the fundamental side with the BOE looking to hike in 2020 due to high inflation pressure from the previous currency depreciation and safety cut.

Meanwhile, business sectors will also be more open to the future of UK with its trade relations.

For JPY, the low inflation environment continues and the Tokyo Olympics means that Japan is most likely not going to do anything drastically in 2020 if any, it will actually lower JPY more for the business sectors and Olympics.

2. Why are you buying/selling this pair SENTIMENTALLY? (Market Sentiment)

Currently, due to the U.S military strike into Iran, the market is in a panic mode of selling, but I think this event is a usual business as U.S and Iran have been on the bad terms since 2018, and it will not case too much ongoing panic into the market and the current buying into JPY might also be helped by the weekend.

Next week the market really opens and the sentiment will shift to neutral.

3. Why are you entering here TECHNICALLY? (Technical 1H with Daily Pivot & Support/Resistance)

From the recent low to high, I’m putting the entry at 50% fib in the hourly chart which is also the monthly SL, and high at R5 November monthly pivot. Slightly below yearly R2.

In order to hit this profit target, GBP has to really have a big sentimental change.