Whipsaw through H1/H4 demand for daily demand?

18 июн. 2020 г.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) remains in view, with the latter so far prompting an attractive upper shadow this month.

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Sterling maintained its offered tone Thursday, following Tuesday’s retest at the 200-day simple moving average from 1.2683, down more than 1% on the session.

Fresh selling shifts focus to demand at 1.2192/1.2361, an area not only fastened to the top edge of monthly support but also considered the decision point to break 1.2647 (April 14 high).

H4 timeframe:

Thursday left behind demand at 1.2476/1.2526, despite a clear attempt to defend the base. In one fell swoop, H4 action dethroned both the aforesaid demand and trendline support (1.2075), landing the pair within the walls of demand at 1.2374/1.2427.

Below this zone, a 61.8% Fib ret level is seen nearby at 1.2360.

H1 timeframe:

Sterling initially bounced Thursday after the Bank of England boosted QE by GBP 100bln (rates unchanged), though swiftly faded highs just ahead of the 100-period simple moving average. Downside momentum levelled off as we transitioned into US trading, aided by way of demand from 1.2375/1.2413 (located within the lower range of current H4 demand).

Any upside from current demand may be hindered at 1.2450, though a breach shines light on resistance at 1.2483 and the 1.25 handle.

Structures of Interest:

While H4 and H1 demand may tempt buying today, daily price eyeing demand at 1.2192/1.2361 is concerning and could force H1/H4 price to whipsaw through respective demands.

Tripping sell-stop liquidity under H1/H4 demands may fuel buyers off daily demand. Note the 61.8% Fib ret level on the H4 at 1.2360 also aligns with the upper boundary of daily demand.