Detailed analysis on GBPUSD 29-2

28 июл.

Daily Chart Analysis

The daily chart of GBP/USD shows a clear Elliott Wave structure with key waves and corrective patterns. Here’s the detailed breakdown:

1. Primary Wave (1) and Wave (2): The chart begins with an impulsive primary wave (1) that ended in early March 2023. This is followed by a corrective wave (2), which appears to be a Zigzag pattern (a-b-c), ending around late January 2024.
2. Wave (ii): After the completion of wave (2), wave (ii) initiated another impulsive sequence. This wave appears to have completed a significant portion of its cycle and is entering wave (iii).
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Key support levels are observed at 1.25945 and 1.23000.
• Resistance levels are noted at 1.32500 and 1.37407.
4. Indicators:
• MACD: Shows a steady upward momentum, indicating bullish potential.
• RSI: Currently around 54.32, suggesting room for upward movement before hitting overbought conditions.

H4 Chart Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the Elliott Wave structure is more detailed and offers finer insights for short-term trading:

1. Wave (i) and Corrective Wave (ii)**:
• Wave (i) is an impulsive wave that started around mid-April 2024 and completed in early July 2024.
• The corrective wave (ii) followed, forming a downward a-b-c correction, reaching support at 1.27704.
2. Wave (iii): Currently, wave (iii) seems to be in progress. Typically, wave (iii) is the strongest and longest in an Elliott Wave sequence, suggesting a strong upward move ahead.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Immediate support is at 1.27704.
• Resistance levels for wave (iii) projection are 1.32500 and 1.37407.
4. Indicators:
• MACD: Shows a bearish divergence during the corrective wave, with a potential shift as wave (iii) progresses.
• RSI: Around 37.03, indicating potential for an upward move.

H1 Chart Analysis

The hourly chart provides the most granular view, ideal for pinpointing precise entry points:

1. Wave i and Corrective Wave ii**:
• Wave i is an impulsive move, marked by a sharp rise, peaking around mid-July 2024.
• Corrective wave ii appears to be nearing completion, forming a typical downward zigzag correction.
2. Potential Entry Points:
• Entry for a long position could be around the support level of 1.27704, anticipating the start of wave iii.
• Confirmation of wave iii can be established once the price breaks above the wave i high around 1.30500.
3. Indicators:
• MACD: Shows convergence, hinting at the end of the corrective phase.
• RSI: Currently around 38.77, suggesting the asset is nearing oversold territory, which aligns with the completion of wave ii.

Summary

The GBP/USD pair, from a comprehensive Elliott Wave perspective, is showing strong potential for a bullish wave iii on both the H4 and daily charts. Key entry points and confirmation signals include:

• Long Entry: Around 1.27704, with stop-loss below 1.25945.
• Confirmation: Price breaking above 1.30500, targeting resistance levels at 1.32500 and 1.37407.
• Indicators: Positive MACD crossover and RSI moving towards the 70 level would further validate the upward momentum.