A look at price action...

14 апр. 2014 г.

Basically this is how I look at price action, it's a story being told.
However, like a story - the plot can change at any time. Which is why it's important to make the right interpretations and follow up on your ideas.

At this moment in time we assume price is trying to creep up. We have nothing but respects for our main trendline and hints of going higher from price action with a poke and pushing triangle, and a 2nd poke with higher closes.
However for price to break into the zone, you need sufficient power which price gets from stronger bases of S&R and trendlines. Our blue trendline combined with daily S&R (our pink line or slightly above) is a superb point from to jump upwards from. The rejection candle closing out of the zone and under the previous close of the big long candle suggests that price is going down first, before going up.

The trade:
Everything is on the chart.
Around the purple line = entry, red line = SL, green line = TP.
Around 3:1 odds trade.
I'm not picking a higher TP here since the top of the zone is so strong it will probably retrace. It's better we enter a new trade then.

As soon as price gives us more information, I'll follow this up and if we get confirmed I'll put the trade on :)

Update 22/04:
We didn't get the jump at the point we we're hoping from. However - we're getting indications the move is right.
The candle on 15/4 was our jumping candle, rejecting S&R which I've neglected a bit. If you'd draw a line at 1.6652x - you'd see it's pretty strong.
In my opinion it's not strong enough to break the barrier, however - the move already started at the previous hit (barely hitting blue, hitting and rejecting pink with 3 strong candles).
In that case, the small jump down after the rejection candle might have enough energy to break trough the full green.
After the new entry in green, you see price doubting a bit what to do, price not rejecting back down is actually a good sign.
The better sign, or a somewhat "confirming candle" happened today 22/04. This candle hints me that price is going to the top of the green zone.
Optionally you could take the trade (wait for a smallish confirmation) with tp top of the zone and S&L below the zone (with a margin for spikes).
I'd be fairly confident taking this trade, however I believe a stronger case could have been made at our former purple line.