News background and trading ideas for 11/12/2018

11 дек. 2018 г.

All the exciting things in the financial markets as already traditionally for the latest period are happening around the British pound. It underwent other sales and reached its minimum for the last year and a half. And it’s not about the UK macroeconomic statistics, which came out quite weak. A devaluation of the pound due to the news that Theresa May has decided to defer the vote in the Parliament amid concerns to its defeat.

Recall, today, the 11th of December the British Parliamentarians were supposed to decide does it worth to agree with a deal between EU and Great Britain in its current version or reject it.

But today we will not get an answer to that. It means the game continues to take place. Actually, we notified about it as early as in September, when started to lead a deal on the pound. So as for us, there are no particular surprises now, but on the contrary, everything is going as it has to go considering the crucial of the event.

In this regard, despite the current prices of the pound and its continued decline, we continue to recommend its purchase. Since we believe in a “soft” Brexit or, as a last resort, in complete rejection of Brexit. Incidentally, Europeans are actively expanding this issue. This refers to the resolution of the EU Supreme Court, which ruled that the UK can at any time deny Brexit. So do not panic and continue to build up a long position in pound pairs.

It was restless not only in pound pairs yesterday. The United States and China are again "at each other’s throats." This time because of the Huawei case. About him already wrote everybody, so we will not detail. We only note that current events can put paid to the peace in the trade wars, and we can become witnesses of the next round of tension.

This may explain the determined unwillingness of oil to grow amid the news from OPEC (meaning the new OPEC+ agreement). However, many in the oil market do not believe in its actual implementation and prefer to wait and observe the facts of lower production volumes. Despite the current inability to grow, we believe that there is potential for correction, as well as reasons for it. So we continue this week to recommend short-term purchases of oil.

To finish, we will recall our trading recommendations (it remains unchanged since Monday): we buy the pound, the Canadian dollar, oil, and gold, as well as sale the dollar and the Russian ruble.