Brexit Would Kill UK Economy and Brexit Is Almost Here

6 апр. 2019 г.

Havn't made a comment on GBPUSD in a bit mainly since just needed to sit back and see what the developments were. As expected, nothing new has happened while the odds of a no deal Brexit on April 12th are now noticeably higher according to the betting markets. The pound hasn't reflected this reality yet mainly because a deal is priced in. Dramatic volatility will come if there's a no deal. UK stock market would be significantly hit as well. Also the UK will probably go into technical recession in Q3 2019. Bad news for all except those on the right side this trade.

From the BBC, "Prime Minister Theresa May said there was now a clear choice between Britain exiting the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all as she tries to find a compromise with the opposition Labour Party." May is so desperate for support on her deal she's gone to Labour which may bring her some votes on the left side of the aisle, but then will probably lose a few more in her own party given the likely promises she will have to make for Corbyn. Meanwhile, EU-based corporations are making plans in case a hard Brexit occurs. All around, we are now in very dangerous territory for an accidental crash out. However, I am still neutral given the fact that there could be a last minute extension even though the French may block this. Again, too volatile for me to trade.