News background & trading ideas for 26/02/2019

26 февр. 2019 г.

Perhaps, news about the probable postponement of the Parliament vote over Plan B was a headline story of yesterday. Recall that on Wednesday, the twenty-seventh of February the vote over the new plan is to take place. But yesterday Theresa May said that there would be no vote by the designated date. The motive is that the negotiations are still in progress and there is no deal which could be voted for. Regarding new terms, May was quoted as saying: I can’t guarantee that it will be taken at a date, till the of March. Chosen initially delaying tactic continues. So, there is nothing unusual for us. May raises the stakes and, by shifting the voting date to the very last moment, deprives parliamentarians of any space for maneuver. This is not a new tactic, but a very effective one. So we continue to recommend mid-term purchases of the pound since what is happening is completely within the scheme and sequence of events that we voiced in September yet.

Trump noted progress in negotiations between the United States and China and once again reminded that he would not extend the deadline, that is, on March 1, there would be no imposing tariffs on Chinese products (recall, this is about $200 billion worth of Chinese goods).

So generally speaking, yesterday can be called calm day. There have been no changes in the general fundamental background.
Oil was under some downward pressure yesterday. But so far we do not see any point for panic among buyers. Quite the contrary, analysts continue to increase bullish pressure, forming relevant mood on the oil market. In particular, this is a statement of Russell Hardy, the head of the world's largest independent oil trader Vitol Group, who believes that black gold prices will continue to rise amid OPEC’s cut production and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. The position is not new at large but could be allowed to prevail. Our intraday recommendation is unchanged so far - we are looking for points for buying oil.

Speaking of today, we note that there is a possibility of another force majeure news from the UK, so you need to watch the information space with a view to this. Besides, the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress may well surprise the dollar, so you need to be ready for responding to the comments of the head of the Central Bank. We do not expect a hawk tone, because it is not the right time for it. So, the dollar can be affected by the statements of Powell.

For the rest, today does not promise any revelations, which means the trading plan remains unchanged: we are looking for points for dollar’s intraday sales in the Forex market, buying oil and gold within the day on the way down, selling the Russian ruble.