H1 5-wave sequence???

28 мая 2020 г.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Though under pressure, support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in May. Neighbouring resistance, should we see an attempt at recovery, can be found in the form of a trendline (1.7191). A violation of support, nevertheless, puts forward a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297.

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis -

A few pips south of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand), a double-top pattern formed at 1.2647, with May 13 consuming the neckline (April 21 low 1.2247) and establishing a potential take-profit target (purple) around 1.1855.

Recent trade observed a retest at the double-top neckline at 1.2247 unfold, with buyers, at the time of writing, governing action. However, this does not imply the double-top pattern will fail; what it does mean, though, is traders are able to sell this market at a healthier risk/reward ratio, as protective stop-loss orders are generally positioned above pattern peaks: 1.2647.

H4 timeframe:

After coming within touching distance of healthy demand at 1.2170/1.2204 and trendline support (1.2075), Thursday extended Wednesday’s closing recovery. While Tuesday’s high at 1.2363 could hamper buying today, squeezing through here lays the foundation for a rally to supply at 1.2477/1.2438 and trendline resistance (1.2163 prior support).

H1 timeframe:

The British pound found itself on the front foot Thursday after dipping to the 100-period simple moving average and dramatically running through orders at 1.23 to supply at 1.2373/1.2345.

Thanks to recent price movement, we are also in the process of forming wave 4 of a potential impulse wave, where wave 1 and 5 may equal. As you can see, wave 5, if the pattern comes to fruition, terminates just above current supply. Though with 1.24 lurking close by, it is likely we’ll bring in this round number before turning lower.

Structures of Interest:

As noted in recent analysis, monthly holds 1.1904/1.2235, despite positioned against the major trend. Sellers on the daily timeframe still have a hand in the fight despite hesitating at the double-top resistance neckline from 1.2247.

H1 price offers a potential retest at 1.23 today to complete wave 4 in a 5-wave sequence. A rally from here could tap buy-stop liquidity above H1 supply at 1.2373/1.2345, with sellers perhaps emerging between 1.24 and 1.2380 (the tip of wave 5).