October's opening level at 1.3367 – worth a short?
For those who follow our reports on a regular basis you may recall the team highlighting November’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 1.3290 as a high-probability base to sell from. Placed nearby the 1.33 band (which essentially represents the weekly resistance level at 1.3301) and also the daily Quasimodo resistance at 1.3279, the monthly level was likely to hold firm. And it did for a couple of hours (see H1 chart). However, with the FOMC minutes only a few hours away, this would’ve been an incredibly risky short, despite sound technical structure.
After the release of the FOMC minutes, the British pound crunched through 1.33 and shook hands with a H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 1.3324, and held ground going into the closing bell. Beyond this line, the next area of concern, at least for us, would be October’s opening level placed at 1.3367, which happens to be positioned nearby daily resistance at 1.3371 (next upside target on that scale).
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Suggestions: It would be a risky move to sell the current H4 Quasimodo resistance, given the recent break of the daily Quasimodo resistance. On top of this, weekly price is seen poking its head above resistance mentioned above at 1.3301. Of course though, this doesn’t mean that the sellers are exhausted here.
As far as we can see, neither a long nor short seems attractive at current prices. The only level we would give screen time is October’s opening level because of its close connection to the aforesaid daily resistance. However, with liquidity likely to thin today, price will not likely reach this high.
Data points to consider: UK growth data at 9.30am GMT; US banks will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day.
After the release of the FOMC minutes, the British pound crunched through 1.33 and shook hands with a H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 1.3324, and held ground going into the closing bell. Beyond this line, the next area of concern, at least for us, would be October’s opening level placed at 1.3367, which happens to be positioned nearby daily resistance at 1.3371 (next upside target on that scale).
.
Suggestions: It would be a risky move to sell the current H4 Quasimodo resistance, given the recent break of the daily Quasimodo resistance. On top of this, weekly price is seen poking its head above resistance mentioned above at 1.3301. Of course though, this doesn’t mean that the sellers are exhausted here.
As far as we can see, neither a long nor short seems attractive at current prices. The only level we would give screen time is October’s opening level because of its close connection to the aforesaid daily resistance. However, with liquidity likely to thin today, price will not likely reach this high.
Data points to consider: UK growth data at 9.30am GMT; US banks will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day.
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