News background and trading ideas for 14/12/2018

14 дек. 2018 г.

Thursday was for the first time in last week or even more the breather day. Accordingly, the main pairs lost any interest in the formation of directional motion and gladly laid down in a flat. However, you should not relax at any time an explosion of volatility can occur. The most likely candidates, of course, are the UK and the British pound.

For instance, as a breaking news from EU about the achievement of concessions on a Brexit deal. AS of yesterday, EU is ready to make compromises on an Ireland's board issue, which could serve as a crucial point, which May had not had for the successful vote. So everything goes according to the plan. We continue buying the pound.

Do not either forget about a quite active negotiation process between the USA and China aimed at burying the trading hatchet. According to the last data from China, has been published today,
industrial production and retail sales demonstrated the growth much worse than forecasts. So China absolutely interested in a settlement with the US.

As for macroeconomic statistics, nothing really significant was published yesterday, but today a block of data from the US (retail sales plus data on industrial production) may well stir up the markets. Plus, do not forget about the factor of Friday, which itself is an irritant. In addition, quite a lot of business activity indices from both Europe and the USA will be published today, so the day promises to be fun.

Coming back to yesterday, we note the outcome of the ECB meeting. Although there is nothing to admit by and large. As we announced yesterday, there were no changes in the Euro zone's monetary policy. So the status quo in this regard is preserved.


In the oil market is still a stillness. The oil comfortably posts on the bottom and, despite obvious causes for correction, there is a sense that technical indicators are going to discharge the consolidation at the bottom, rather than a corrective increase in prices. In this light, a breakdown of 50 (WTI) looks with each passing day an increasingly pressing sentence for oil buyers. Nevertheless, as long as the asset varies above this mark, we continue to recommend oil purchases, since we believe that the correction, though not very meaningful, is still a more logical scenario (especially taking into consideration the outcome of the OPEC meeting) than further fall of oil without corrective.

Our trading ideas remain unchanged: we buying the pound, the Canadian dollar, oil, and gold, as well as selling the dollar and the Russian ruble.