Короткая

GOLD - SHORT; Easy-peasy

Обновлено

This is a no-brainer to SELL it right here.

Especially with the DXY about to bottom!

(... which will very likely turn out to be an extremely long-term bottom - i.e., "for good" - as the U is about to go on a historic tear (+50%))

Заметка

Looks like Silver still has about +$3.00 left in it;

... which stands the reason since the DXY is "about to bottom" but hasn't, yet!

Заметка

The G/S (Gold/Silver Ratio) is also pointing in the right direction;

The (very) clear indication here is for a 1500 Gold by Dec., 2023.
Time to start looking at those GCZ1500P options!

Заметка

This is reacting here as expected;

SHORT

Заметка

Chances are ...

Заметка

As I was saying ...

... Iff there ever was a slam-dunk Short, this one is it!

Well supported by this;

Заметка

Сделка закрыта вручную

(I forgot to update this earlier) nevertheless ...

... we took our +$120 (Short) and ran.
Gold is on it's slowest ascent in history thus, there is a lot more grinding likely to take place around these levels.

Заметка

(Still) "Easy-peasy" is right! Talk about reliable ... Boring is good, though!

SHORT - This is likely to bounce up here, briefly, off of the current Stop Hunt.

Not surprisingly, this spread has been just as reliable, at the same time, pointing the way forward into equity oblivion;

Заметка

The following aims to be referencing long term holding/investment - i.e., buy-and-hold strategies in the metals, as opposed to any short term trading advice - which this is not!

As far as (all) the PMs are concerned, this aspect of the current state of affairs may deserve a special mention;

The G/S Ratio (as well as the Philadelphia G & S index), at this point, is providing a clear, technically unambiguous picture, one that is strongly suggestive of potentially serious head winds for the metals, likely for quite some time to come! (6+ months ...)
Coincidentally, a number of pairs (triplets) of Leading Indicators
(such as
- ISM Purchasing Managers Index & CPI core & Long-term yield increase/acceleration; or
- CPI & nom. GDP & {b]which end of the yield curve(?) causes flattening/inversion;
- etc., ..
- here, one uses the CPI + nom. GDP growth + 10-year Yield rate of change / acceleration)
also happen to align rather coherently, in almost all of their possible (meaningful) combination. For example, while the PMI & SMI & GDP growth are currently firmly sub 50, this immediately points to the obvious next question regarding the remaining variable, I.e:
Which end of the yield curve would cause flattening/inversion in the near- or foreseeable future, given the current, historically sub-par starting point for the long-end of the yield curve? ...
Should the answer turn out to be "the long-end", in this combination, that would imply some serious and lasting headwinds for the metals and related (equity) positions.
Factoring all of the above, the following;
1) Single "naked" positions face now, and likely to retain going forward, inferior Risk/Reward Ratios from these present starting points; (I.e., Don't do it!)
2) All "equity positions" in the metals will be inferior compared to outright ownership of the metals themselves, especially with some downside protection (hedge) in place; (I.e, Do it, if you must, but hedge - dynamically.)
3) Gold (the metal itself) should form the long-leg in any spread/hedged position, and given the present, historically low starting point for US long term yields, the long-end of the curve is much more likely to accelerate during any near term yield increase - curve flattening/"un-inversion" -, negatively impacting all net-long positions in the PMs. (I.e., The rate of change in the increase of long-term yields will have the most negative impact on net-long positions, e.g., Do not use leverage - to say the least!)

Сделка активна

Gold in Chinese Yuan;

To say that this looks ominous (for gold) would be the understatement of the decade.
massive SHORT

Now, unless the Yuan is about to stage a rally to end all rallies, vs. all else (and how likely is that? ... With stimulus being the constant motif of the day, week, month ...) ... The alternative being a severe sell-off in the PMs, with special regard to gold!

1) There is that perfectly formed Head-and-Shoulders - on the Daily;

2) Which has just broken it's neckline - right on schedule;

3) Having formed (precisely!) in the PRZ of a massive - Weekly - Bearish Gartley!

And as they say: "3 out of 3 ain't bad!"
"... and when you see it, you bet the farm!" - Stanley Druckenmiller

... and here is the Weekly;

Заметка

After an initial grab-and-run of the first $120 (Short) out of this one ...

... we're back in it SHORT, very much where we've left off.
By all measures, this is about to go into a searing dive, the kind that could take off one's eyebrows, if not careful.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

We really didn't do much with that last Short re-Entry;

as It ended up being a scratch ($0) and so, our take for this entire move remained the same +$120, net total, .
Today's price action definitely had the looks of a reversal and overall, the week ending up in a bullish Hammer made us buy this up and take it home LONG going into the weekend.
On the long run, there are no earth-shattering expectations here - still a strong Short Bias! - but for now a brief upward correction is in the making. (The Gold/Yuan situation remains in focus because there, something will have to give, and soon, in a major way! At the same time the Chinese have spent yet an other week dumping everything, including their foreign reserves and the kitchen sink, EXCEPT for Gold. Can't wait to find out what their grand plan may be! ;-)

Заметка

Already LONG, this weeks action in the G/S;

... prompted us to significantly increase those LONGs

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

We've bailed on that Stop Hunt near 2000 and took our +$75 in profits, for now.

This is likely to continue up but probably not before it comes back to fill that gap around 1980. (Which will be a perfect opportunity to reload, Long.)

Заметка

This one is getting worse by the minute;

Continue FLAT
This market would have to show something (anything!) before there is any point to consider it, one way or an other (and that could take a while).
Currently a Short Bias, at best.

Заметка

Now this is slightly more interesting here;

If it doesn't turn up here, it is likely to fall off the cliff.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

Right on schedule!

Took our +$30 (Long) profit here, FLAT for now.
Expecting a pull back into the 1910's and then we shall see.

Сделка активна

SHORT
This looks good for ~$100 here, to the downside.

Заметка

... as for the longer term prospects here

... looks pretty much one-way.

Заметка

Gold-Silver Ratio [ CG/SI ];

Mixed bag with Upside Bias

Gold - Retail Interest remains heavily skewed to the upside (75% long -> Short Bias) however, short interest jumped ~25% in recent days (Long Bias?).
The G/S technicals, while also somewhat mixed here, continue to imply a strong Short Bias in the PMs.

Заметка

G/S

With that break in the G.S Ratio, Gold isn't a Short here!
(Already Long Silver)

Заметка

Given the price of Gold in Swiss Francs,

which price is more likely next, before the other? ...

1) 1330 CHF / oz
2) 1940 CHF / oz

Put your answer in the comment section.

Заметка

Not much mystery here;

With the USD's continuing drop - although temporary! -, this should continue Up without much issue. (But ONLY while the USD is taking a breather.)

Nemo_Confidat

Мои профили:

Отказ от ответственности

Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.