GEO - Scion Asset Mgmt. = Smart money?
Обновлено
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!!!
As shown in This SEC 13-F filing, Scion Asset Mgmt. (Burry) currently has one mentionable LONG and its this ticker with an assumed cost basis of $6.60 and 501,360 shares... I am betting these shares were NOT purchased on the open market and were instead acquired via assignment meaning credits from selling PUTS were likely involved (for tactical reason to fight slippage as explained below), unfortunately making it impossible to calculate a factual cost basis from this filing alone.
Selling DEEP "ITM" PUTS(covered by cash) expiring today leaves a cost basis (if assigned) of $8.20 and if assigned, the ability to sell next weeks $9 strike for a profit on both sides. Profit in this scenario would be from credits collected at sale of calls and proceeds if called at $9 before expiration.
The other way to also be long GEO at current market prices, and perhaps with a lower cost basis, would be to just buy shares. If you are buying shares in multiples of 1000 maybe the order book isnt liquid enough and you need a contracted price to enter without the potential for slippage? Well look no further than selling the deepest "ITM" puts expiring TODAY....
While selling "ITM" puts expecting a non-assignment is a game of long odds and not advisable, you also have the chance this way of keeping credits and not being assigned, which eliminates your ability to capitalize on the future upside for the unassigned shares, however you also didnt technically expose yourself to the share market and still profited.
I personally dont like following others trades blindly, so I analyzed and found some technical confluence and subsequent conviction through the monthly volume profile points of obvious interest and fib retracement levels calculated from the last 5 year depreciation.
As shown in This SEC 13-F filing, Scion Asset Mgmt. (Burry) currently has one mentionable LONG and its this ticker with an assumed cost basis of $6.60 and 501,360 shares... I am betting these shares were NOT purchased on the open market and were instead acquired via assignment meaning credits from selling PUTS were likely involved (for tactical reason to fight slippage as explained below), unfortunately making it impossible to calculate a factual cost basis from this filing alone.
Selling DEEP "ITM" PUTS(covered by cash) expiring today leaves a cost basis (if assigned) of $8.20 and if assigned, the ability to sell next weeks $9 strike for a profit on both sides. Profit in this scenario would be from credits collected at sale of calls and proceeds if called at $9 before expiration.
The other way to also be long GEO at current market prices, and perhaps with a lower cost basis, would be to just buy shares. If you are buying shares in multiples of 1000 maybe the order book isnt liquid enough and you need a contracted price to enter without the potential for slippage? Well look no further than selling the deepest "ITM" puts expiring TODAY....
While selling "ITM" puts expecting a non-assignment is a game of long odds and not advisable, you also have the chance this way of keeping credits and not being assigned, which eliminates your ability to capitalize on the future upside for the unassigned shares, however you also didnt technically expose yourself to the share market and still profited.
I personally dont like following others trades blindly, so I analyzed and found some technical confluence and subsequent conviction through the monthly volume profile points of obvious interest and fib retracement levels calculated from the last 5 year depreciation.
Заметка
lol When I started the analysis and chartwork for this publishing the share price was $8.14, guess I couldn't type fast enough ;).Сделка закрыта вручную
Selling $7 ITM Jan 2024 calls the other day would have produced a profit via credits, buying them back to close would have then realized those profits, in an IRA is the best place to shield from taxes. selling the the underlying shares right now would produce a $0.04 per share "profit" or near breakeven. Again meaning profit from selling the covered calls. Zero downside was realized in this scenario that was played out adhering to settlement or T+2.Заметка
Still very cool to see this continue to play out, I’m thinking they will be announcing the dividend soon and this will really pick up. The profit from the exit described above was around $2 per share, meaning the market needs to break above 10.18 before the exit above is labeled as “too early”. Thinking that selling cash covered $9 puts with the correct expiration might be fun no matter the outcome. Not Financial AdviceЗаметка
And it’s apparently got legs!!!!Заметка
TARGET 1 was a successСделка закрыта вручную
choosing to close early, today at a price of 11.34 would leave you with over $3 profit per share.Заметка
Boom, exiting “early” wins again
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