Gold extended the recovery and postponed the decline
Gold's general commentary: Gold was back to consolidation area of #1,660.80 - #1,680.80 on Hourly 4 chart as I believed that best way to utilize current sequence was to Trade the breakout and await for a next Daily chart’s candle. If market closes below #1,692.80, then most possibly I will have a downtrend confirmation towards #1,680.80 mark first then #1,652.80 mark in extension. If however market closes full Hourly 4 chart’s candle above #1,700.80, then most likely Price-action should soon connect with #1,727.80 pressure point.
Technical analysis: Constant efforts of Gold to defend Upper levels was not sufficient as Buying pressure was evident (Investors are moving capital from riskier assets due global geo-politics towards safe-havens such as Gold as an answer of Gold being Oversold for too long). Gold reached out almost #50 points from #1,652.90 psychological mark and didn't got rejected marginally due strong Volatility on Yields which are Trading under (aswell above Quadruple Top’s formation on Daily chart) and it should be no surprise that Gold is Trading above Resistance zone. If Support belt is broken (#1,680.80 - #1,692.80) Gold will be calling for #1,652.80 extension as Price-action might pursue #1,600.80 mark much earlier than expected. Personally, I believe that Gold is both Technically and Fundamentally equipped to start reversing into a new Bearish leg, despite what today’s U.S. session opening Bell has to offer. The narrow U.S. session today and market closing should have a Neutral effect as Investors will probably focus on weak announcements reading. My focus is on DX which will simply validate the Bearish reversal as this is far from fair Technical Price-action of Gold (Top of the Buying spree should be near #1,680's). Expect extreme Volatility in the following sessions and strong side Swings.
Fundamental analysis: Price-action came too close to the #1,712.80 - #1,727.80 Medium-term Resistance zone and the fact that is currently strongly rebounding may not only be Technically attributed to mentioned fractal (many similarities with February #11 fractal) but also to the fact that it just hit the Lower High’s trendline of the Hourly 4 chart’s healthy Ascending Channel. As long as mentioned zone is providing Resistance, I expect Gold to break back below the Hourly 4 chart’s Rectangle and pressure for #1,652.80 Higher Low’s Upper zone. Gold is Trading on Inflated prices and same as Gold was purely rising on Fundamental factor, similar takedown will follow. If Gold closes the session below the #1,700.80 mark on market closing, expect Gold to make a Top here. If on the other hand Gold eventually closes the session above, I expect the High Volatility zone of mid-April - June to be tested (#1,718.80 - #1,680.80). Bearish bias remain intact as I am confident in #100 - #120 point decline ahead.
My position: I am still without the order for #4 straight sessions and will continue to do so until Gold provides me with excellent re-Sell entry. Keep in mind that Buying Fundamentally driven movements is dangerous as Price-action can reverse anytime and keep the Trader trapped. I am very comfortable with waiting.
Technical analysis: Constant efforts of Gold to defend Upper levels was not sufficient as Buying pressure was evident (Investors are moving capital from riskier assets due global geo-politics towards safe-havens such as Gold as an answer of Gold being Oversold for too long). Gold reached out almost #50 points from #1,652.90 psychological mark and didn't got rejected marginally due strong Volatility on Yields which are Trading under (aswell above Quadruple Top’s formation on Daily chart) and it should be no surprise that Gold is Trading above Resistance zone. If Support belt is broken (#1,680.80 - #1,692.80) Gold will be calling for #1,652.80 extension as Price-action might pursue #1,600.80 mark much earlier than expected. Personally, I believe that Gold is both Technically and Fundamentally equipped to start reversing into a new Bearish leg, despite what today’s U.S. session opening Bell has to offer. The narrow U.S. session today and market closing should have a Neutral effect as Investors will probably focus on weak announcements reading. My focus is on DX which will simply validate the Bearish reversal as this is far from fair Technical Price-action of Gold (Top of the Buying spree should be near #1,680's). Expect extreme Volatility in the following sessions and strong side Swings.
Fundamental analysis: Price-action came too close to the #1,712.80 - #1,727.80 Medium-term Resistance zone and the fact that is currently strongly rebounding may not only be Technically attributed to mentioned fractal (many similarities with February #11 fractal) but also to the fact that it just hit the Lower High’s trendline of the Hourly 4 chart’s healthy Ascending Channel. As long as mentioned zone is providing Resistance, I expect Gold to break back below the Hourly 4 chart’s Rectangle and pressure for #1,652.80 Higher Low’s Upper zone. Gold is Trading on Inflated prices and same as Gold was purely rising on Fundamental factor, similar takedown will follow. If Gold closes the session below the #1,700.80 mark on market closing, expect Gold to make a Top here. If on the other hand Gold eventually closes the session above, I expect the High Volatility zone of mid-April - June to be tested (#1,718.80 - #1,680.80). Bearish bias remain intact as I am confident in #100 - #120 point decline ahead.
My position: I am still without the order for #4 straight sessions and will continue to do so until Gold provides me with excellent re-Sell entry. Keep in mind that Buying Fundamentally driven movements is dangerous as Price-action can reverse anytime and keep the Trader trapped. I am very comfortable with waiting.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
