XAUUSD: Trading in support or resistance areas

12 сент.

After the CPI inflation data released yesterday, the market predicts that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the meeting next week has dropped from 44% a week ago to 13%, so the probability of a 25% basis point rate cut in September has basically become a foregone conclusion.
Smaller and more conservative rate cuts are not good news for gold, but it is still a certainty that the rate cut will be beneficial to gold. However, after the impact of the rate cuts in the past 1-2 months, most of the gold price has been digested in the process of rising.
So I think that if the gold price cannot set a new record high in the next 1-2 weeks, then there will be a downward trend in gold.

From the perspective of the gold market, the gold price is now at 2516, which is the middle position between the lower support of 2500 and the upper resistance of 2530. It is not good to be bullish or bearish here, so we need to wait for the market to approach the support or resistance before formulating a trading plan today.

The trading plan is as follows:
If the gold price reaches around 2530, you can sell here without breaking a new high
If the gold price reaches the 2500-2510 area, you can buy without breaking support
Based on the fundamentals of smaller interest rate cuts, I prefer to be bearish at high levels rather than bullish at lower levels.

Risk data to watch out for today:
European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Data
U.S. August PPI Data

12 сент.

Сделка активна

The just-released ECB deposit mechanism interest rates, the ECB's main refinancing rates, and the number of Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week are all in line with market expectations and have little impact. The annual rate of PPI and the monthly rate of PPI are both positive and negative, and the magnitude is not large.
The impact on gold is also minimal, so we still maintain our view and wait for resistance to sell, or support to rise

12 сент.

Сделка активна

The price of gold has reached a new all-time high, with the highest reaching 2535. Since it has broken the price, let’s wait and wait until the upward momentum slows down before selling.

12 сент.

Сделка активна

The gold market is so exciting today. The all-time high has just been refreshed again, reaching 2542. At present, it seems that the gold price has stabilized at 2540. I think there is a certain risk in Sell here, but at the same time, there are also great opportunities.

Therefore, I am going to carry out a small position Sell here.

12 сент.

Сделка активна

2550 can add positions

12 сент.

Сделка активна

We have started to make profits, and we will set the target at 2532 temporarily.

12 сент.

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From the trend point of view, the price of gold has now begun to turn downward, with the historical high at 2555. From now on, you can stick to the bearish trend.

12 сент.

Сделка активна

Now it seems that the price will not fall again today. I am going to hold the position overnight and hold on until tomorrow.