$XAUUSD $GOLD $2,540 PLAUSABLE BY END OF WEEK (23Aug2024)

18 авг.

Since the 1st of April 2024, GOLD has formed a clear bullish channel with a highly probable eventful price action week to the few hours after FED Chairman Powell's speech on Friday. I believe a suggestion of an emergency FED rate cut outside schedule propels GOLD to between $2,525 and $2,540. This of course is dependent on the size of retracement in the earlier days of this week.

12th to 16th August was a bullish week that saw GOLD reach an ATH above a psychological mark of $2,500. In the absence of clear increased and unpriced geopolitical risk(s), I expect some retracement within the accelerated channel from 12th Aug (white channel). The accelerated bullish channel (white) and the longer term bullish channel (pink) provide a great tier of support levels to use as risk indicators against the bullish trade.

1. The 1st support level will be $2,483 as it coincides with the high of day's trades for 17th July and coincides with the progressive mean for the accelerated channel for last week's trades on the yellow metal. The yellow dashed line shows the first level a retracement can breach against opposing the long positions this week. This will probably come as early as the Asian trades in a few hours. I will still hold if a position was opened in fear of a huge event over the weekend. I opened a smaller than normal position near Friday's closing bell.

2. The slightly more significant area for me will be the $2,464 - $2,472 price range on a daily candle. Any close in this range between Monday and Tuesday together with Volume profile analysis should indicate strong selling pressure (amber range). This will be the last level I would add to my position (but on the small side as the probability to hit $2,525 - $2,540 would need more certainty of an event driving the price's momentum.

3. If on the Day candle we hit the red-pink zone, then an event driven momentum could only see us hitting sub $2,530 but for me sellers would have significantly dented my expectations for the week.

LET"S GO FOR THE GREEN DOT OR HIGHER. GOOD LUCK

4. Touching $2,429 or under before or Wednesday on any timeframe is significant even for the bullish channel started 1st April. This will be its rising mean and crossing under is some seller strength in the arm wrestle for GOLD.