Sell Gold with SL 100800

22 авг.

📌 MCX Gold Technical Outlook (₹/10g)

Context: Despite Jackson Hole and fresh rate-cut chatter, gold hasn’t managed a decisive breakout. The USD resistance near $3,390 is capping price; on MCX that maps to ₹100,800.

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Bias tilts neutral-to-bearish unless price closes above ₹100,800. Failure to clear that cap keeps the door open for a pullback.

Key Levels (mapped with USD/INR = 87.20)

Resistance / Bull trigger: ₹100,800 (≈ $3,390)

Support 1 / First target on weakness: ₹99,100 (≈ $3,330)

Support 2 / Deeper target: ₹97,300 (≈ $3,270, approx)

Scenarios

Base case (bearish drift): Rejections below ₹100,800 → slip toward ₹99,100. If that breaks on a closing basis, extension toward ₹97,300 is likely.

Invalidation: A strong close above ₹100,800 flips momentum back up; then reassess for higher targets.

Tactics (example):

Look for retest + rejection near ₹100,800 for risk-defined shorts.

Stops just above the rejection high; targets ₹99,100 → ₹97,300 in steps.

If price bases at ₹99,100 and reclaims higher lows, consider trimming shorts or tightening risk.

Note: Levels are directly mapped from USD spot/futures anchors using your FX assumption (USD/INR 87.20):
$3,390 → ₹100,800 · $3,330 → ₹99,100 · $3,270 → ₹97,300 (approx).

31 авг.

Сделка активна

🟡 Gold Surges 5% in August – What It Means for Indian Investors

Gold just delivered its best monthly performance in four months, with international prices (XAU/USD) rallying nearly 5% in August to close at $3,447/oz. On MCX, gold futures followed suit, gaining close to ₹3,500 per 10g through the month, driven by a mix of global and local factors.

📈 Why Did Gold Jump?

US Rate-Cut Bets Back in Play

Fresh inflation data in the US showed prices rising in line with expectations.

Markets now expect a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold.

For Indians, this means global liquidity could stay abundant, keeping gold well-supported.

Dollar Weakness = Stronger Bullion

The US Dollar Index slipped 2.2% in August, reversing July’s gains.

A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper globally and tends to push MCX prices higher, especially when the rupee is stable.

Fed Independence Under Question

Political drama erupted as US President Trump tried to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook (appointed by Biden).

Any shake-up in Fed independence raises concerns about credibility → more safe-haven demand for gold.

⚖️ Technical Picture

Resistance zone: International gold has returned to its June highs.

If prices break above $3,450–3,500/oz, the next leg higher could open.

If a double-top pattern holds, we may see a pullback toward $3,380–3,400/oz.

On MCX, this translates roughly to ₹1040000–106000 per 10g resistance and support around ₹99000–100000 per 10g.

🇮🇳 What Indian Investors Should Watch

Festive Season Demand: Dussehra and Diwali are around the corner. Even at high levels, jewelers will stock up → keeping premiums firm.

RBI Reserves: The central bank continues to add gold to reserves, a confidence booster.

Investment Avenues: For Indians, SGBs (Sovereign Gold Bonds) remain the most tax-efficient choice if you’re investing, while MCX futures work for traders.

📊 Takeaway

Gold’s August rally shows how global rate expectations + politics in the US can directly influence prices here at home. With September’s Fed decision approaching, Indian investors should prepare for volatility.