$ICX-BTC | Is this the bottom?

20 мая 2018 г.My Assumptions:
1. Bitcoin doesn't do any crazy moves.
2. People expected way more growth for the consensus week, since ICON has been one of the major sponsors. These short term speculators may have left the market in huge dumps during and after Consensus2018.
3. The joint venture with Line is big. But the impact wasn't as big because of Nr. 2.
4. Launch of ICONest, their ICO plattform, didn't have a bigger influence on the price, since the ICON team (or "exchanges", I don't care) still didn't manage to complete the token swap.

My Predictions:
We still have a long way to go up, as long as the team delivers and reaches milestones.
I think a lot of people saw the cup and handle pattern. At first I thought the top line is at around 46500 Satoshis and the breakout would work out a lot stronger. But meanwhile, I know the cup and handle was actually a little smaller with the top line at around 42000 satoshis. The purple lines belong to this pattern. As you can see the depth of the cup fits perfectly to the recent high of around 52500 satoshis. So the breakout around April 24th should be ignored. Using this purple trendline, I can see a descending triangle with the purple line as bottom line. The dip below (on May 11) can be ignored for this pattern, since it corrected back up very quick and big time. The fib levels seem to be important supports and resistances as well. If we see a break above the yellow line (drawn on the daily in log scale) I expect a break above the 0.236 fib level as well, which should add some additional fuel to the rocket. ;-)
My Target is a break back above the white trendline. I guess ICX is going to come back to follow this trend line, and maybe starting to form a nice ascending triangle with 52500 or 55000 as upper line. And then we will see! :-)

Possible Trades:
Buy zone: 42000-44000 satoshis
Target 1: ~10-15% profit
Target 2: ~20-30% profit


What do you guys think about this idea?



Sources:
Consensus Sponsors 2018: https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/sponsors/
Launch of ICONest: https://medium.com/helloiconworld/introduction-of-iconest-icons-token-launch-platform-d6168984c8ac
ICX Token Swap Status: https://medium.com/helloiconworld/token-swap-status-update-9a41c8448006
Partnership with Line: https://medium.com/helloiconworld/joint-venture-between-icon-and-line-unchain-b802fa0fa071

None of this is financial advice, of cause. I am just drawing fancy looking lines on my screen.

21 мая 2018 г.

Комментарий

Update:
We've now officially broken down through my purple support line on the 4h chart - on the daily chart we're still good, so there are still 12h left to make this break become just a wick on the daily. A Death Cross has formed on the 4h chart which concerns me a little, but can be fixed with a strong bounce upwards. RSI is oversold on the 1h chart.
Around 4050 satoshis is the key level to watch, since there is the support of the .382 fib level as well as the 50-day SMA. As long as this holds, I'm bullish.

22 мая 2018 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена

Very low Volume, very low RSI, but ICX still keeps falling. Very disappointing. Do we really have to go back to the 0.5 fib level (around 3700) before we can see a reversal?