After a multi-year decline in price, I think the underlying commodity has changed trend for at least the remainder of the year. A rest is needed here, though. Specifically a pullback to the price support at 33.41 is likely over the next couple months. After that I think coffee is likely to continue a developing wave 5 advance. I show that path in orange.
I show another possible count here of an ABC in blue, which will be invalidated upon completion of the wave 5 in orange. My preferred count is the 5-wave impulse in orange. The entire 5-wave sequence will be validated and complete, upon an ABC retrace likely to 50-61.8%, but all that is over a year out, and a lot can happen between now and then.
The ABC scenario could imply new lows, but one trying to play the long scenario could place a stop below the weekly cloud, or manage long trades from a lower timeframe.
I show another possible count here of an ABC in blue, which will be invalidated upon completion of the wave 5 in orange. My preferred count is the 5-wave impulse in orange. The entire 5-wave sequence will be validated and complete, upon an ABC retrace likely to 50-61.8%, but all that is over a year out, and a lot can happen between now and then.
The ABC scenario could imply new lows, but one trying to play the long scenario could place a stop below the weekly cloud, or manage long trades from a lower timeframe.