MA Weekly -- My First Libra Pattern

I identified my first Libra pattern on MA . Unfortunately, this is almost two months after the move occurred. Still, I am happy to be able to recognize and hope to be able to identify it many more times in the future.

Just last week was a good opportunity to short again with another very bearish pinbar. At this point it is probably best to wait for at least some kind of bounce. A short from ~$95.50 with stop loss above $98 could be in play, but this is probably still chasing price too much. Still I mention it here to keep track of ideas and so I can look back and see if these wind up being good ideas over time or not.

I also want to log the cost of two different put options which could work for the trade I have shown in the chart:

July 15 87.5 Put Option closed at $.55 yesterday (the day of the most recent bearish pinbar)
July 15 90 Put closed at $1 that same day
If the target ~$79-80 hits, these options would yield a risk/reward of approximately:
(A) 1 : 13.5
(B) 1 : 9.5

Комментарий:

This is why we wait and don't chase price. MA closed at 95.11 today (6/21). The support line around $93 seems to have held. In the original post I said ~95.50 could be a good place to short, and it very well might be later this week. But before committing I will continue to watch price action.

For reference, here are the same put options with updated pricing:

July 15 87.5 Put Option closed at $.34 today (down nearly 20% from original post -- timing is crucial with options!)

July 15 90 Put closed at $.61 today (down nearly 40%!)

Watch for opportunity to buy 90 Put @ .50 ....this will yield about 1:20 risk/reward if 79.50 hits by July 15!