2024-05-13 - a daily price action after hour update - gold

13 мая

Good Evening, I hope you had a great weekend and you are well.

overall market comment
Very slow and range bound trading day in most markets, so only a short update today because my nothing in my weekly premise changed today.


gold
comment: Market is forming a triangle and since we are near the low, bulls are expected to buy it above 2312 to not make lower lows and trade it back up to around 2370ish.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 2300 - 2400

bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 2312 and trade back up inside the triangle for target 2370ish which is also today’s high and near the breakout level from one month ago. First target is a break of the 1h 20ema around 2350, small pullback to form a higher low and then a bull channel up to 2370. Pattern could probably play out until CPI release on Wednesday.

bear case: If bears are strong, they would print below 2310 tomorrow to make many bulls doubt this will retest the highs above 2400 again. If they could manage that, their next target would be 2300 and there is bulls last hope for not a big bear trend down to 2050 over the next weeks. Invalid above 2355.

short term: Sideways to up - Got the expected pull-back which was deeper than I thought. Now probably back up again.

medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. —unchanged

trade of the day: The bear channel was pitch perfect and held all day. 15m or 1h 20ema were also a nice guides for initiating or adding to shorts.