Micro Gold FuturesДлинная
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - There it is. Another break above, which was expected more than bears breaking below 2500. Bulls want 2600 and I expect more profit taking and more sideways movement at that level. No interest in selling it.
gold
comment: New ath, which I have been writing about for many weeks now on the premise that as long as bears could not even break below 2500, there was no alternative to being bullish. The breakout was a matter of when and not if. Market refused to close below the daily ema for 5 days despite touching it 4 times. That’s strong bulls scaling into longs. What’s next? We are at the top of the bull channel and every time market made a new high, bulls took bigger profits. Will this time be different? I doubt it. Can bulls break above the bull channel for much higher prices? Doubt that too. Will look for weakness and scalp some shorts tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2600
bull case: Bulls want 2600 and somewhat above to run stops. Nothing unexpected. I highly doubt that have bigger interest in printing much higher than 2600, given the previous sell offs after new ath. 15m 20ema was not touched on the whole move up, so look for longs once we get there before we hit 2600.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears gave up above 2560 and I can’t see them coming around big time below 2600 so don’t waste energy on looking for shorts until it’s clear that bulls have no interest in buying anymore. Bears need a break of the 15m and 1h ema to begin with.
Invalidation is above 2610.
short term: Bullish for 2600 and then only interested in shorts again.
medium-long term: Will update on the weekend. Bulls are clearly much stronger than most expected. Market refuses to go down.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: If in doubt, zoom out. 1h chart showed only strength since Globex. Buy anywhere and make money.
tl;dr
Gold - There it is. Another break above, which was expected more than bears breaking below 2500. Bulls want 2600 and I expect more profit taking and more sideways movement at that level. No interest in selling it.
gold
comment: New ath, which I have been writing about for many weeks now on the premise that as long as bears could not even break below 2500, there was no alternative to being bullish. The breakout was a matter of when and not if. Market refused to close below the daily ema for 5 days despite touching it 4 times. That’s strong bulls scaling into longs. What’s next? We are at the top of the bull channel and every time market made a new high, bulls took bigger profits. Will this time be different? I doubt it. Can bulls break above the bull channel for much higher prices? Doubt that too. Will look for weakness and scalp some shorts tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2600
bull case: Bulls want 2600 and somewhat above to run stops. Nothing unexpected. I highly doubt that have bigger interest in printing much higher than 2600, given the previous sell offs after new ath. 15m 20ema was not touched on the whole move up, so look for longs once we get there before we hit 2600.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears gave up above 2560 and I can’t see them coming around big time below 2600 so don’t waste energy on looking for shorts until it’s clear that bulls have no interest in buying anymore. Bears need a break of the 15m and 1h ema to begin with.
Invalidation is above 2610.
short term: Bullish for 2600 and then only interested in shorts again.
medium-long term: Will update on the weekend. Bulls are clearly much stronger than most expected. Market refuses to go down.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: If in doubt, zoom out. 1h chart showed only strength since Globex. Buy anywhere and make money.
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