Calls From The Crisis - MTN, IMP, DSY, FSR, GRT

16 авг. 2021 г.

Today MTN cleared R130. Up 8.51% by end of day, even after the the news out of Afghanistan. Well done to all those involved. This post however, isn't about today, last week or even last month. It's about last year March when markets were in turmoil as the Covid crisis caused havoc in all aspects of human life. At the time, as markets were falling (JSE -35%) we took the opportunity to guide clients toward one of the greatest opportunities in recent years. On our client group, as markets were under severe pressure I hastily wrote the following note:

Red = Opportunity. A General Market Comment

A brief thought as things are moving fast.

The period 20-January to present has been extreme with the All Share Index falling by over 20000 points and the Top 40 by 35%.

Various sectors have been decimated:

For one, Platinum & Precious Metals are lower by 61% while Diversified resources are lower by 45%.

At current levels, amidst the carnage, it may be an opportune time to dip one's toe i.e. phase in / rand cost average on a medium to long term portfolio.

I dont know where the exact bottom is however here are a few names that have caught eye, and some which I have been publically bearish on for extended period of time and which has served as a portfolio protection and risk management tool.

Now some of these may be worth phasing into.

IMP now 5200c (bearish since 14600c in Jan-2020)
DSY now 7200c (second target has been reach. Sell call @ 16100c, new bank launch, optimistic valuation)
MTN now 3800c (bearish since 11500c) - Can go to 3300c.
FSR now 3648c (long term sell note at 6677c Nov 2018, it can go to 3200c)
GRT now 1100c can go to 900c (bearish since 2367c)

If you've be waiting for opportunities, these are some which can be considered and could form part of a diversified portfolio.

Please note this is not a comprehensive list since prices are moving quickly and I've had to keep it brief. Please also chat to the rest of the trading desk about additional opportunities.

Please remember

- This is an equity portfolio view, not a trading view
- diversify appropriately
- phase in/rand cost average.


Today, 17-months later:

MTN 3800c to 12999c
IMP 5200c to 24000c (also recommended in Sep 2018 at 1900c)
DSY 7200c to 12800c
FSR 3600c to 5900c
GRT 1100c to 1517c

I know it was a harrowing time, but did you take the opportunity to get involved and allocate to your medium to long term portfolio?

Volatility is often where we thrive, using down days to accumulate and sunny days to sell. Yes, easier said than done, but opportunities abound for the focused trader and investor.

If you need help in your trading and investing journey? Get in touch today.