23 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - India Lands on Moon 🌒🌓🌕
Nifty also closed in the green today but did not have as much momentum as BankNifty today. The first divergence happened in the opening 1 hr where Nifty gave up 0.43% ~ 83pts even after having a gap-up opening. The real reasons for a gap-up opening was not clear as the Global hand-out was not that positive.
Traders including me were looking for breakdown possibilities as the 5mts candles at 09.15, 09.25 and 09.50 had so much force. Since Banknifty started reversing the trend and was showing a breakout possibility, I did not adventure getting into shorts on Nifty50.
Once the momentum was set by the breakout on BN, Nifty also caught up to it. There were still many sectors in red - Auto, Commodities, Consumption, Energy, FMCG, Pharma & Metal. This indicated that the rally in Nifty will not be as powerful as BankNifty.
The reason I drew 2 bearish trend lines yesterday makes more sense today. If we go by the orange line - it means we already had a falling wedge breakout. If we go by the blue - we are yet to break it.
Tomorrow’s opening minutes will give us the exact answer to that question. Personally I feel we are yet to break out and the blue line is more accurate. To have a real breakout, almost all the sub-sectors also has to be in green.
Since Banknifty has already broken out, the probability has shifted into a similar trade direction for Nifty as well. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish for tomorrow. If the breakout fails or we hit the 19310 level tomorrow, I might have to fall back.
Traders including me were looking for breakdown possibilities as the 5mts candles at 09.15, 09.25 and 09.50 had so much force. Since Banknifty started reversing the trend and was showing a breakout possibility, I did not adventure getting into shorts on Nifty50.
Once the momentum was set by the breakout on BN, Nifty also caught up to it. There were still many sectors in red - Auto, Commodities, Consumption, Energy, FMCG, Pharma & Metal. This indicated that the rally in Nifty will not be as powerful as BankNifty.
The reason I drew 2 bearish trend lines yesterday makes more sense today. If we go by the orange line - it means we already had a falling wedge breakout. If we go by the blue - we are yet to break it.
Tomorrow’s opening minutes will give us the exact answer to that question. Personally I feel we are yet to break out and the blue line is more accurate. To have a real breakout, almost all the sub-sectors also has to be in green.
Since Banknifty has already broken out, the probability has shifted into a similar trade direction for Nifty as well. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish for tomorrow. If the breakout fails or we hit the 19310 level tomorrow, I might have to fall back.
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