NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 5th Mar

4 мар.

As we discussed yesterday, NIFTY has been taking resistance at the resistance trendline and resulted sideways.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the Resistance trendline. The market has been in a range bound in (22350-22470). Also price >> EMA(200) (TF = 30 min) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200). This indicates that the market needs some correction or consolidation at this point.

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.26 indicates the bullish nature of the market. There has been huge activity at 22400. NIFTY has equally distributed PE and CE writing on both sides. But at lower levels, the market has huge support at 22200 and 22000.
I am expecting 2 cases in the market, which have been marked in the chart.
Case 1: Support is at 22370, and resistance is at trendline.
Case 2: retracement till fib 0.38 level. (22220)
Reasons:

1. Price > EMAs show bullish sentiments. (Bullish)
   
2. Price >> EMA(200) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200) market might get some correction till 22200.
   
3. RSI ~ 63 (falling) shows weakness in bulls.
   
4. PCR = 1.25 shows bullish signal whereas combined week expiry shows PCR = 0.90 weekness in bulls for upcoming week. (sideways)
   
5. Price <= VWAP shows that the market price is balanced and can go either side. (Indecisive)
   

Verdict:
Sideways or Bullish

Plan of action:
Case 1: Iron condor in range 22300-22450.
Case 2: Sell 22450 CE (Hedge is with 20 rs CE)