NQ Long (NDX, QQQ)
Обновлено
NQ is showing the first signs of recovery from its recent decline. The overall decline and first day of recovery is structurally similar to the last pullback in April. Price has pushed through the bottom BB and is starting to bounce back inside. RSI has turned up on the daily after being pushed below the lower threshold which has only happened 3 times this year and price has bounced each time. Given that the latest PCE was on target, rate cuts appear to be within sight. For the period between now and when the first rate cut actually occurs, I think NQ will rally to the previously developing POC around 20,000.
The 20,000 level is also supported by a massive open interest for QQQ 496 calls (image linked below) which roughly works out to the 20k NQ level. The call wall should act as a progressively stronger magnet since MMs will buy the underlying to hedge their exposure. It will also act as a major resistance which is why my final scale out is a range to be adjusted as the trade progresses.
Risks
There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, so these assumptions are based on macro data meeting forecasts and the remaining MAG7 earnings being neutral to favorable. If the remaining MAGs miss on earnings, then I expect a drop to around 18,500.
QQQ Open Interest
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V2oFS1POZVA9571b8E9u_7UKsTdWalIy/view?usp=drive_link
The 20,000 level is also supported by a massive open interest for QQQ 496 calls (image linked below) which roughly works out to the 20k NQ level. The call wall should act as a progressively stronger magnet since MMs will buy the underlying to hedge their exposure. It will also act as a major resistance which is why my final scale out is a range to be adjusted as the trade progresses.
Risks
There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, so these assumptions are based on macro data meeting forecasts and the remaining MAG7 earnings being neutral to favorable. If the remaining MAGs miss on earnings, then I expect a drop to around 18,500.
QQQ Open Interest
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V2oFS1POZVA9571b8E9u_7UKsTdWalIy/view?usp=drive_link
Сделка активна
Initiated position although I am going to use a tighter stops or possibly add a hedge due to MAG earnings, BoJ, BoE and fed rate decisions. I am also watching USDJPY closely since it is correlated with the yen carry trade (USDJPY currently 154).Сделка закрыта вручную
Today didn't close like the second recovery day of the April pattern although it did start strong. I could tell that it was going to be a volatile day so the initial 3 contracts opened at 19200 were closed at 19317, then reopened and scalped several times during the day after the opening drop for a total of ~250 points.I will look for another entry after mag7 earnings and other macro news.
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