NAZ guide to a Short Trade or Drop/Pop. Keep your eye on the Diagonal TL (white line), these usually kill the NAZ as the NAZ rotates around and follows. The Circle is a great spot for a bounce, need the NAZ to retest below in the Box. Should the current weak lift (that just can't move, at all) stall and fall past the red line (TLX) we may see this play out. Until then hold your nose and ride the slooooow lift higher. O/N had a 5 minute 100 point bounce that did not hold. While the NAZ is lifting it just does not seem to hold them for long, just a note if you are a BTD/FOMO trader.
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Slow lift is on again, typical pre Open PA. NAZ in Mid range of O/N PA and still in Mid of yesterday KL Range of 11580 - 11680. Trade in opposite direction near KL, the 11580 Long may break lower so use a stop on. 11620 seems to be good support, a break below 620 may break through 580 on drop.
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10YN Yield is dropping, this use to effect the NAZ (up). BTD & FOMO may just continue, I would expect a good drop test short once the stall out happens near Top of slightly above. NAZ rarely go much higher than O/N high after Open when there is a Diag TL, FYI.
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Shorting at KL is quick reliable trade, liifts continue to get sold. Feel that the NAZ may snap soon.
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11680 break would be a Short set up, Long above until stall.
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11720 appears to be strong resistance for the NAZ, strong Short under 11680 for 100 point run.
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The idea is that Top or Bottoms take some time to turn and NAZ is looking a bit Toppy and may turn, could be wrong so use a stop and watch the head fake Longs.
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Under 11780 NAZ will retest Top 1st 30M and Hold is up and no hold is Drop to 11620
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11680 Held, so watch that level as it will be a problem for shorting.
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Program your trades for 80-100 point runs
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I will be back later, BIG Short is near as the NAZ is running on FUMES.
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Back in the BOX watch the Circle. Magic Dust will be needed to keep NAZ UP.
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11700 level NAZ may rotate around, to below and above. Until next lift, stall head fake near level fails. Or NAZ just drops hear at 11650.
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11536 TLX is hold , reliable stuff, NAZ may go back up above TLX or drop big below.
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3 days of Garbage Lift is gone in 1 hour, YEP. 3 days vs 1 hour, which is more efficient?
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When you think the NAZ will turn back up, add 50 points lower and then look for Long trade.
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NAZ is basing, Ticks still negative. Small lifts and Small drops for now.
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Diag TL, NAZ Killer.
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Mentioned yesterday the Debt Ceiling would be an excuse to drop the NAZ. Look for Pop back once the chatter changes. May be tomorrow or Friday at Box Bottom. 509 pass goes to 471.
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Drop not being bought, not a good sign for BTD's and FOMO Traders.
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471 pass goes to 432.
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So the reason for the O/N lift is that there are ETF's (new) that buy the O/N only and then sell at Open. There you go with the Prop Magic and TTZ movement. Keep that in mind today, Closed Short at 11490 or Channel Bottom. These RTF's may come in near or after the close.
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TLX retest is likely. 11536
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Could be wrong but I think the better buy is at 11400 or BOX bottom.
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TLX to low should be range
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Weak lift, Overbought, drop should follow. Only concern is a Hook Stoch move (when Stoch goes 50% and then turns up).
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You have to hang tough on these and let them play out. The riggers will try and shake you out of the trade. The Stoch did HOOK. Place stop ant entry 11530-35 depending where you got in. This is a SCALP. Today was a bigger move trade from the Open, These have been rare and we were due. Scalps have been much of what has been available, lately.
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Leave the stop and let it play out. Scalping is energy and time consuming compared to the larger Edge Trades, like this morning. It is like looking for scraps, this is much of what we have been handed, lately.
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471 may be the EOD? Let it go.
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Today did not get the Rally back up or Strong Long that I was looking for. This is like a half plan of price action. The next 100-200 points may be to the downside into next day, on hold may see a decent spring back then. 471, 400, 328 on drop. Any hold may pop back up some. Closing Scalp good for 50 points so far, final 5M may get it lower.
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11471, Recap is Weak Lift Yellow, Fake Check White arrow and Drop Yellow Arrow
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Today had the 1st day of normal price action in a few weeks, if not since late November. May update the range for tomorrow.
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Just great that the springy Up PA is gone, that was just annoying and harder to trade than Shorting. Will be interesting to see how O/N plays out.
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TLX 11536 Short Runs 100 to 11440, reverse long back to TLX may be your next trade. The recent 1,000 point run in the NAZ gave back 300 points today, look for some up/down as we retrace 50-85% of the 1,000 point run up.