NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May15-19)

NQ finally broke above the multiweek range last week. Friday price action pulled back to the the break point so this week with either confirm or deny the break of range. Heavy week of Feb speakers ahead. Hawkish tone likely to bring market down. Dovish tone likely to push the market higher. Powell scheduled to speak on Friday.

SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 0.45% gain last week after trading in a range of 290 points.
• NQ made the highest weekly close since Aug 8th
• NQ closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLE, XLB & XLF
• NQ closed above the recent range high
• Positive reaction to CPI data but neg reaction to Mich. Sentiment on Friday
• Key catalyst this week likely to come from comments by long list of Fed speakers
• Earnings this week include reports from WMT, TGT, BABA, TJX, DE, HD, CSCO, AMAT
• Bearish Harmonic still in play with completion at 13640.
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market balancing hopes of a rate reversal with potential recession stagflation

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday NY Manufacturing, Fed’s Bostic, Kashkari, Barken & Cook speak
Tuesday US Retail Sales, Can CPI, Industrial Prod. & Fed’s Bostic, Barr, Williams & Logan speak
Wednesday US Housing Starts, EIA Crude & Building Permits
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims, US Home Sales & Fed’s Logan, Barr & Jefferson speak
Friday Fed’s Williams, Bowman & Powell Speak

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday BIDU, DOCS, HD, IQ, SE
Wednesday CSCO, TCEHY, TGT, TJX, TTWO, ZTO
Thursday AMAT, BABA, BBWI, FLO, ROST, VIPS, WMT
Friday DE, FL

BULLISH NOTES

Highest weekly close since Aug 8th
NQ above 9/21/55 emas
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Bearish harmonic completion zone may act as magnet (13640)
Dropping inflation pressures
Recent bank failures may soften Fed’s hawkish tone
Potential positive reaction to Fed Speakers
Rate pause hopes
Potential strong retail numbers (lowers recession fear)

BEARISH NOTES

Stoch 5.1 is overbought
Potential hard reversal at bearish harmonic completion (13640)
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to Fed speakers
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Recession fears may outweigh Fed rate pause hopes

Комментарий:

$NQ_F has been slowly grinding higher for the first few days of the week. The harmonic completion zone that I have been talking about for 3 weeks is just over a 100 pts away. At this point odd of a reversal increase significantly. Next level higher would be the Aug 1th high if the bull move continues.

Комментарий:

$NQ_F Bearish harmonic completion zone hit. I expect resistance at this level, but it is a high time frame pattern so any potential deep reversal is likely to play out for a while.

Комментарий:

Here is a look at the bearish harmonic as I measure it. No guarantee of a reversal as these are apporx 62% trades, but good to be aware of. This is a daily time frame pattern so need to wait for a lower time frame topping pattern for confirmation. Stop is above the Aug 16th high so risk range is large. Good idea to watch price action in the megas as they are stretched to the upside right now as well.

Комментарий:

Forgot to mention the 50% mark of the entire range. As long as price stays above the 50% I will stay bullish.

Комментарий:

Absolutely zero sign of bearish move so far. Aug 16th high is this upside target. Can't think shorts until a lower time frame reversal pattern forms. So far nothing but up.

Комментарий:

$NQ_F holding its gains from yesterday despite the fact that Powell speaks at 8am PST. Take note that all vertical moves have been retraced lately. Aug 16th high is still in play. Even if price decides to reverse we may see an explosive move up first.