NZD/USD Finds Support Amidst Economic Headwinds

New Zealand Dollar Finds Support Amidst Economic Headwinds

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has recently discovered support at 0.6090, a critical area marked by previous support levels. This zone features two major supports, the 200-day moving average, and a dynamic trendline, potentially acting as obstacles to further declines. The presence of the 50% Fibonacci level adds an additional layer of potential resistance. Despite these technical factors, the Kiwi faces challenges, as New Zealand's Business PMI and Visitor Arrivals failed to provide the anticipated support.

The support zone at 0.6090 holds significance, with multiple key elements converging to create a formidable barrier against further downward movements. The 200-day moving average, dynamic trendline, and the 50% Fibonacci level collectively act as dynamic supports, suggesting a potential reversal in the NZD's trajectory.

Market Sentiment Influence:

Amidst the challenging economic backdrop, improved market sentiment on the last Friday provided a glimmer of support to the Kiwi. Moderate advances in most European markets and positive Wall Street futures weighed on the Safe-haven USD, indirectly bolstering the NZD.

New Zealand Economic Challenges:

However, economic data from New Zealand presented a less optimistic picture. Business activity deteriorated in December, and visitor arrivals experienced a significant decline compared to the same period last year. This unfavorable data poses challenges for the Kiwi's strength.

Upcoming Events and Outlook:

In the upcoming US calendar, market participants will closely watch the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, expected to show moderate improvement. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will conclude the week with her insights.

Our Outlook:

Despite the economic headwinds, our outlook for the NZD leans towards a new bullish impulse. The strong correlation with the EUR, coupled with the possibility of a decrease in US power, suggests potential upside for the Kiwi. Traders should carefully monitor economic indicators, central bank communications, and global market sentiment to make informed decisions in this evolving landscape.

Conclusion:

As the New Zealand Dollar navigates a challenging economic environment, the support at 0.6090 presents a potential turning point. While economic data reflects headwinds, the influence of market sentiment and the correlation with the EUR could contribute to a bullish resurgence for the NZD. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies to the evolving dynamics of the currency markets.

Our preference

Long positions Above 0.59500 with targets at 0.62500 & 0.63500 in extension.

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✅ VALID

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✅ Still Active

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✅ STILL VALID !

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Still good.