NZD's double-bottom to foretell its next move?

20 февр. 2023 г.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver its second interest rate decision of 2023. The decision is release on Wednesday 2pm NZDT (Tuesday 8pm EST) What makes this interesting is that the country has just been hit by Cyclone Gabrielle which has reportedly caused more than NZ$12 billion worth of damage to infrastructure and private property. As such, some market watchers are predicting a pause in the RBNZ’s rate hikes (or a slowing), although the consensus is still for a 50-basis-points hike. With the uncertainty present in the market, the NZD/USD might look a little vulnerable ahead of this RBNZ decision.

The NZD/USD is currently testing the support area created in January at 0.62249, which is crucial in predicting its next move. If the support area fails to hold, a short-term target includes 0.61648, and a long-term target includes 0.61000. NZD/USD is also below the 200-EMA, indicating a bearish trend. If the price manages to reject at the current support area, it may bounce to retest the 200-EMA period before continuing the downtrend. However, support holding up at 0.62249 would mean a double-bottom pattern formation, indicating, at least, a short-term bullish trend. For the reversal to have any momentum, the price needs to clear out the past consolidation area between 0.63523 and 0.63000, ultimately breaking the 0.63523 resistance area before continuing to the upside.

Any upside to the NZD/USD might be capped by the strong economic data coming out of the US. Additionally, the US is closed for Presidents Day on Monday, perhaps causing some pent-up selling activity in the pair to eventuate on Wednesday NZDT/ Tuesday EST.