Increase the difficulty level on yourself.

2 нояб.

Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more".

Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis.

If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out.

Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market"

Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden.

Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets).

1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise).





You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second.

When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways.



The second rule;

Each trend has three phases:

Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion.

Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase)

Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit.

This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap.



Then, the 3rd rule.

The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news).

4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend.

(I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.)



Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend.

As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.)



You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles.


The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall.

In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift.



Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest"


We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame.


At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down.



Something like this;


You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process.




Disclaimer

This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.