Oil 6R Short Trade | Smart Money Concepts | ICT | SMT divergence

28 мар. 2023 г.

Testing another short swing trade based on SMT divergence; this time, divs between US treasury yields and Oil, targeting a previous day's low and demand zone.
I already caught one 6R short the other day using this same setup, and now we have more divergence while price has come into an untapped New Day Opening Gap as well as a supply zone.
We have also retraced on the daily timeframe to the 50%/equilibrium of the range and bottom of the wedge pattern that has already played out.
Price has choched/MSS'd on the 1H timeframe taking out Asia lows and pulling back to mitigate around daily range's equilibrium/mid.

This swing trade is supported by:
1. (like my BTC long) A risk-off environment due to impending bank failures combined with the Fed's sentiment indicating an ostensible softening of interest rate rises.

This is not investment or financial advice, just my own opinion.

28 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

Here's that retrace to 50% EQ on the daily chart so you can see it:

28 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

Oil is looking fairly strong on the intraday charts, so I'm thinking, maybe price will take out HOD coming into the weekly -OB and /then/ drop.
This would tie in to the fact yields/bonds haven't quite come into that 4h order block yet.

Conclusion: maybe in future it's better to wait for intraday SMT divergence instead of 4h swing SMT divergence when in this situation.

I still think price should drop from this 4h bearish order block on Oil though, considering we're making lower 4h swing highs and lows on the yields.

28 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

I decreased the size of the position at break-even allowing me to move the stop to encompass the entirety of the 4h -OB/supply zone. I will scale in if/when another signal presents itself.

28 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

28 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

This is the 2Y /US treasury bonds/yields situation - they're not quite at the zone/order block (I should have waited, but the whole point is to learn):

29 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

local SMT divergence, sweep of previous day high, 5m choch/MSS. Now that's what I'm talking about

29 мар. 2023 г.

Заметка

Well that didn't work. Initial conclusion: this continuation strategy does not work when price has retraced back to the larger pattern once the target has played out, and needs a full distribution setup over a few days.
I will endeavour to exit the position given that price will pull back to break-even.