PayPal Holdings, Inc.Обновлено Neutral - watching gradual downtrend/50-week EMA
Not buying today despite the discount because a gradual downtrend has formed. As long as that pattern holds, it will continue to make lower highs and lower lows over time (doesn't sound fun). That said, if it can eventually break out of the downtrend (which is currently running next to the 50-week EMA), I would consider starting a position (even though it would be at a higher entry). Anyway, I'll keep an eye on for a weekly and/or monthly close decisively (with volume) above that level.
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I excluded the April 2022 candle because that was part of a sharper downtrend from the all-time high. Here's a monthly chart showing all historical price action.Заметка
Another way it could possibly eventually break out would be by trading quietly sideways for a while. I'd say that would be the ideal set up to trade on. But anyway, just watching for now.Заметка
Tweaked the trend line slightly to reflect weekly closing prices. I'm disregarding the candle from the week of 1/22/24 because, while I'm cutting it off slightly, it was turned back at the 50-week EMA and closed lower.Заметка
The trend line is still close enough to the 50-week EMA that I would use the 50-week EMA as a signal to trade on instead.Заметка
I was out of town last week but I'll be looking to start a position in PayPal on Monday as I see it closed above the 50-week EMA (nice monthly close as well). Not sure on a price target ATM. My initial thought is that this is only a one and a half year downtrend, so maybe it can test the 200-week/50-month EMA (which is currently just over $100 and would be about a 50% return).Заметка
Started a position in PayPal just now. If it can rise fairly quickly to the 200-week/50-month EMA, then I'll probably just sell there. If it spends some time trading sideways, I may raise that target. I could also set a fairly tight stop loss of a weekly close back below the 50-week EMA but not sure on that yet.Заметка
I've thought about the potential stop loss more. Right now, we're just below the 50-week EMA but close enough I would continue to hold. If it closes significantly below the 50-week EMA I'll probably sell and wait for a more meaningful close back above the 50-week EMA to re-enter. As I've already said, I'd rather see it trade sideways for a while, so if I get stopped out, I may just wait and see if that sets up. Anyway, holding for now.Заметка
This trade is not looking good at the moment but I'm going to hold and see how the rest of this week plays out. If it sells off significantly I may just continue to hold and average down at some point. If it stays around where it is now ($63) or a little lower then I'll probably sell out for a minimal loss and continue to keep an eye on it.Заметка
Probably selling today as it's been turned away around the 50-week EMA, also updated the trendline. Will continue to watch and maybe look to re-enter depending on how it sets up.Сделка закрыта вручную
Officially sold out of my position just now, will continue to keep an eye on though.Заметка
Back above the 50-week EMA, I got faked out pretty hard that's for sure but didn't have much invested in this yet anyway. Earnings coming up tomorrow looks like before the open. Probably will move decisively, anyone's guess which way... If it pops higher, I'll look to eventually get back in on a potential gap fill. If it drops lower, I'll continue to wait. And if I miss out, oh well. Good luck!Заметка
Nice gap up this morning. If I had funds available I would probably buy this move because so far it's not too crazy, up about 5-6%. However, I personally have to wait until next week to potentially re-enter, so I'll see how the rest of this week and early next week play out.Заметка
Still stuck at the 50-week EMA after looking like it was being turned away (which got me out), then reversed and looked like it was going to break out. I will continue to watch, not re-entering at this time. Want to see if it can retest the breakout from earnings last week, which quickly reversed. Ideally, I'd like to see it trade sideways quietly for several weeks.Заметка
Back above the 50-week EMA. Unless it falls apart this afternoon I'm going to restart a position. No stop loss this time. If it falls I'll just average down. I'm still looking for a short-term rise to around $100; however, if it spends years in a basing (accumulation) range around where it's at now or lower, I may raise that target. Good luck if you decide to follow and diversify so that this trade doesn't matter much if it doesn't work out but can provide a boost to your portfolio if it does.Заметка
Faked out again... I'll look to average down at some point but it hasn't dropped enough yet. Looks like it wants to break down (but it's looked like that before)...Заметка
Updated trendline to the fakeout candle which is now an important resistance level, still running really close to the 50-week EMA.Заметка
Nice reaction to earnings this morning. Despite that, it's still below significant resistance currently (hopefully the strength can continue and provide a meaningful breakout). I'll look to double the position that I started almost 2 months ago on a weekly close above the "fakeout" candle. Otherwise I'm still holding and looking for a spot to average down if it fails at key resistance here.Заметка
Took a look at the chart with the 50-week SMA (instead of EMA) and it's interesting. Price was turned away at it in January 2023, July 2023, and ultimately in January/February 2024 before it was able to breakout for several weeks. I still think the 50-week EMA is a more important level to break through but this indicator seems like it may be useful as well so I'll keep an eye on it.Заметка
Technically a breakout on a weekly closing basis but just barely. I'm going to wait another week before potentially doubling down.
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Price followed through this week, so I will double my position near the close today (as long as it doesn't fall apart this afternoon). Personally, this position will only be ~1% of my Roth IRA portfolio even after doubling my position, so it really doesn't make much difference to me if it reverses again from here. If that happens, I would continue to watch for an opportunity to average down significantly. Otherwise, I'll continue to hold and hope that this can help provide some growth to my portfolio. I recommend doing the same if you decide to follow (diversify, diversify, diversify!).
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Hoping support holds at or above the 50-week EMA now that it has spent several weeks above it.
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Setting a stop loss of a weekly close below the most recent significant low that was made, which lines up with the 20-week EMA. Support should hold there (or above) if this intermediate-term move is going to continue.
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Stop loss (on a weekly closing basis) will continue rise with the 20-week EMA. I will watch for support to hold around that level or above. (I don't like open order stop losses in general because I don't like that people can see my cards. It's like playing poker with your hand shown to the chip leader.)Заметка
Heading the wrong way ATM but still above 20-week EMA, so I'll continue to hold and see what next week has in store.
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Nice recovery this week, sometimes it pays to wait. Found support pretty much right at the 20-week EMA. Continuing to hold and hoping it can make a new high next week (if not today).
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Rough day today after earnings. I will wait until the end of the week before I decide what to do.Заметка
I'm going to hold another week and see if support holds at 50-week EMA (I suspect it may but obviously not looking good ATM).
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Interesting, hadn't checked the 200-week EMA in a while and it's providing resistance. In no man's land ATM. The question is will support hold at the 50-week EMA and eventually break through resistance at the 200-week EMA or will this short-term move end here and continue basing for a while?
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