QQQ Macro + Volatility Read

1. AW1!/US10Y shows commodities trending higher

• A rising broad commodity index means inflationary pressure is accelerating & this tends to push yields up, which pressures tech multiples
  
• Higher commodity prices is a drag on QQQ
  

2. VIX & COR1M shows volatility is high

• COR1M ripping harder than VIX indicates front-loaded hedging & is event-driven
  
• After NVDA earnings, volatility normally compresses sharply unless the event is disastrous
  
• This is supportive for a post-event equity bounce
  

3. QQQ/VXN is still extremely washed-out

• QQQ underperforming implied volatility by a wide margin is historically associated with short-term exhaustion lows
  
• This extreme is more consistent with fear/hedging overshoot
  
• This favors a bounce unless VXN continues ripping
  

4. NDX/NDXE shows breadth remains strong

• Even with commodities rising (inflation pressure), equal-weight Nasdaq is firmly outperforming
  
• When inflation becomes a serious tech headwind, breadth usually collapses, not expands
  
• Breadth made higher highs, is still in an uptrend & turned bearish
  

This is event-driven fear layered on top of a still-healthy breadth structure

• NVDA event hedging elevates COR1M/VIX, QQQ dips into support ($598-$602)
  
• Volatility crush after earnings if NVDA isn’t disastrous results in a bounce toward $610-$620; however, rising commodities means the upside is less explosive & may fade sooner
  

A rebound toward $610-$620 remains the more probable post-NVDA path

QQQ SPY NVDA