Qqq ... 10% correction

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From July to December Qqq traded inside a rising wedge..

That rising wedge was broken and retested

The target here would be 480-486.
But a trip down to daily 200sma or weekly 50sma is most likely



So what has been the hold up..
I looked at this from a few angles and I think Qqq is creating a Bearish Descending triangle that will be broken late this month.



Bulls will probably see a bullflag




But I think it can be both but the bullflag will have to head lower
And the first target would be 492 by End of month




As far as the tech sectors go..

XLK , the biggest sector
When u focus on the last 30days price looks like it's trading sideways


But zoom out and you'll see it's the same as Qqq with respects to the wedge



Price has been holding above weekly
21ema at 230... Below that and next leg down starts . Until then 230-241 is distribution


Soxx and SMH are both Chip sectors..


Nvda and TSLA follow SMH more

While AMD and Qcom follow Soxx

Soxx

Daily 50sma crossed below 200 a few weeks back.. last time this happened was 2022.. I think this weakness in chips will last for months..
Price closed back below 200sma this week and I don't think it gets back over it until this correction is done. The only safe long is over 240 , everything else is knife



SMH
It's going to be more bag holders here
. Price got rejected hard here at 264 resistance... In the next few days chips will be the weakest.. expect SMH to pull back to weekly 50sma or price action at 237..

If 237 is losses then we head back to Sept levels.




XLC
This is the sector of Meta, Googl and Nflx
Honestly this is the most dangerous sector to be long in! Look at the monthly Candle, RSI ,Money flow and stochastic.. when ever I see this I think Dotcom bust.
Fell out of wedge similar to XLK and Qqq..
Also trading sideways similar to XLK
My target is 88.. I doubt this sector makes its out of Q1 alive



This is the sector of
Amzn and TSLA
Rising wedge again followed by a bear channel.. price is hovering above the 50sma.. once that breaks my target is 212-214 previous ATH..

Daily money flow is almost oversold though so id wait for a break below 50sma to short and be ready to eject at 214 for a dead cat bounce..




Focusing on the smaller time frames , I think Qqq bounces back to 520-523 before the next leg down.. hourly has went oversold on NQ.... I don't think Qqq breaks back over 523 and that's where id reload shorts....

One of my main indicators is XLK..
It's the biggest sector..
If it breaks over 241 then this correction is over and I was wrong but if it breaks below that weekly 21ema then the next major leg down has started.

Vix is showing bullish ascending wedge.. usually vix shows opposite pattern of indexes.. if you see a double top on spy normally there's a double bottom on Vix .

14 часов назад

Заметка

Zoom out.. look at the weekly candle on QQQ
More lows are coming next week .
Most likely 495.. sure price could bounce but we likely don't see above 510-512.50..
Fade the pops

10 часов назад

Заметка

Oversold indicators will be useless until narrative changes.. the narrative now is higher rates for longer.. For a true bounce to come it will take a really cool CPI next week. And even then the bounce will make a lower high.. . We will make another low next week . Most likely 498 but 495 is on the table too!