QQQ Short-Term Rhythm

The expected-move range (using current IV ≈ 17%-18%) to see where QQQ statistically “should” trade by mid-October, which may be helpful for picking your next strike

1. Bounce from 20d MA $596–$600 with a retest of $610–$615 (60%)
2. Sideways continuation between $600–$610 (25%)
3. Close <$595 with a pullback to $580 (15 %)

A dip into $598-$600 with a stabilizing candle is statistically the highest-reward entry for short-term calls

• No reason to short unless price closes below both the trendline and 20d MA on elevated volume (>60M)
  
• If anything, the next real move could be a bounce attempt, not a flush
  

Based on current implied volatility (IV ≈ 17.8 %) & QQQ ≈ 605, the expected move (1σ range) for the coming week & into 24 October, where Expected Move = Price × IV × √(t/365)

• 17 October (10 days) ≈ 1σ 15 pts (68% probability) ≈ 2σ 30 pts (95% probability) $590-$620
  
• 24 October (17 days) ≈ 1σ 20 pts (68% probability) ≈ 2σ 40 pts (95% probability) $585-$625
  
• 31 October (24 days) ≈ 1σ 24 pts (68% probability) ≈ 2σ 48 pts (95% probability) $580-$630
  

So statistically, QQQ has about a 68% chance to stay between ≈ $585 & $625 by 24 October

If you’re bullish,

• Favor calls slightly OTM ($610-$615) expiry 24 October
  
• Target breakout confirmation above $608 with volume
  

If you’re cautious/swing-trading,

• Use short-dated, low-cost put lottos near $600 only on breakdown <$600 (ideally Friday/Monday flush)
  

If you prefer defined risk,

• Debit spreads ($605/$615 call spread) give good exposure without over-paying IV
  

20d MA ≈ $597 lines up with the lower 1σ bound (~$590-$595)

• Resistance near $612 is mid-upper 1σ band (~$620)
  
• So the option market’s “expected move” fits almost perfectly with your technical structure