fed bubbles and weekly 401k pump and dumps

11 июл. 2022 г.

hello all,

ta is based off of a few assumptions,

1) short term bullish momentum on fed speeches met with quick reversals.

indicitave of whales massing large short positions

tsla at 100 p.e (now harder to get your hands on a car loan, bearish on tesla)

2) friday pump and dump schemes to gain short term lliquidity from auto 401k's under the guise of "stability" from the fed, listening to the full story as they continue to ramp up QT.

3) watching short volume on leveraged etfs versus the volume on underlying baskets paints a dim picture of markets having trouble "pricing in" inflation.

happy trading!
gme to the moon.

11 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

fell most of the way as i was typing this! no signs of slowing.

12 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

major global indicies are down including the nikki, tech heavy and better performing than the us markets this year.

btc saw another chunk of loss today. trading considerably "flat" for btc. heavier on the downside leverage than upside compared to broader markets in the last few weeks.

expecting another 2-3% drop today, likely already moved premarket.

12 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

struggling to reverse the downturn, looks like a lot of momentum is about to be returned.

13 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

big day for cpi #'s today, looking at the last few months of trading against those numbers it seems indicative of another report leak yesterday, timelines adding up to another drop tomorrow.

remember cpi =/= inflation, it is a tool to measure it that keeps changing!
ask any contractor if the length of an inch has changed in the last 100 years!

13 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

(core)cpi greater than expected!

13 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

apparently the markets didn't get the memo! looks like algo trading back to a mean- poor volume on a big day, looks a bit sus waiting for the drop!

13 июл. 2022 г.

Сделка активна

big big news today,

cpi numbers still ath.

Bank of Canada raising rates hte- bad news for Canada's favorite and only real contributor to their GDP earnings - housing.

huge off loading of the fed balance sheet, looks like they are still planning on making more permanent bag holders..

in the event of all the negative news flowing i still think we are breaching the midsts of another news cycle. large liquidations in the markets happening before our eyes, little to no volume in the markets but the greatest spike in etf adoption was this year, a ripe setup for leaving people with a lot of bags and broken dreams.

my orginal thesis about the downside of tech bubble similar to the 2001 crash of the dax is still playing out and this might have been the last leg of the plateu before we really see damage done.

but the markets are moving faster!
due to the availability of leveraged etfs, (now available in bitcoin flavoring!) the sec might as well throw its hands in the air in terms of market manipulation.
but they dont give af as the "investor mania" ensues.

buckle up for a rip we bout to make a fat dip

most average people don't or cant execute short sales, and don't understand selling something they do not have, we are still early to the party.

14 июл. 2022 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

hello everyone

got 2 legs on the down turn :O

closed up this morning as we renter upward channels.

expecting a dead cat bounce like yesterday with less gumption.
will it break down again? my theory is we are coming out of the 2-b INVERSE Elliot wave of the bear market.

with dxy still ripping and vix following a 2 year curve from covid its safe to assume that there will be more turbulence ahead- waiting for a giant to fall like tesla or another hedge fund liquidated- with gme pumping against the market it seems plausible.

14 июл. 2022 г.

Заметка

ive been noticing a trend on cpi/ ppi nubers being listed as "better than expected" but continue to rise-- wonder if it has anything to do with algo trading- false liquidity build up on low volume runups to longer term VMA, creating false support and margin for big players to exit. then a harsh crash back to reality. theory played out this week on major indexes -

you will see netflix/gme and other short basket stocks being run up before a large dip - weighted swaps in action :D