Can China Weaponize the Elements We Need Most?

China's dominance over rare earth element (REE) processing has transformed these strategic materials into a geopolitical weapon. While China controls approximately 69% of global mining, its true leverage lies in processing, where it commands over 90% of Global capacity and 92% of permanent magnet manufacturing. Beijing's 2025 export controls exploit this chokehold, requiring licenses for REE technologies used even outside China, effectively extending regulatory control over global supply chains. This "long-arm jurisdiction" threatens critical industries from semiconductor manufacturing to defense systems, with immediate impacts on companies like ASML facing shipment delays and US chipmakers scrambling to audit their supply chains.

The strategic vulnerability runs deep through Western industrial capacity. A single F-35 fighter jet requires over 900 pounds of REEs, while Virginia-class submarines need 9,200 pounds. The discovery of Chinese-made components in US defense systems illustrates the security risk. Simultaneously, the electric vehicle revolution guarantees exponential demand growth. EV motor demand alone is projected to reach 43 kilotons in 2025, driven by the prevalence of permanent magnet synchronous motors that lock the global economy into persistent REE dependency.

Western responses through the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and US strategic financing establish ambitious diversification targets, yet industry analysis reveals a harsh reality: concentration risk will persist through 2035. The EU aims for 40% domestic processing by 2030, but projections show the top three suppliers will maintain their stranglehold, effectively returning to 2020 concentration levels. This gap between political ambition and physical execution stems from formidable barriers environmental permitting challenges, massive capital requirements, and China's strategic shift from exporting raw materials to manufacturing high-value downstream products that capture maximum economic value.

For investors, the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) operates as a direct proxy for geopolitical risk rather than traditional commodity exposure. Neodymium oxide prices, which plummeted from $209.30 per kilogram in January 2023 to $113.20 in January 2024, are projected to surge to $150.10 by October 2025 volatility driven not by physical scarcity but by regulatory announcements and supply chain weaponization. The investment thesis hinges on three pillars: China's processing monopoly converted into political leverage, exponential green technology demand establishing a robust price floor, and Western industrial policy guaranteeing long-term financing for diversification. Success will favor companies establishing verifiable, resilient supply chains in downstream processing and magnet manufacturing outside China, though the high costs of secure supply, including mandatory cybersecurity auditing and environmental compliance, ensure elevated prices for the foreseeable future.