Nordnet: The question is Breakout or Fakeout?

13 авг. SAVE's Position: Breakout or Fakeout?
SAVE is currently at a critical juncture, having recently broken out of its long-term bullish channel. The key question now is whether this move represents a genuine breakout with a successful retest or just a fakeout.

Monthly Chart Analysis
On the monthly chart, we observe that since its IPO in 2020, Nordnet has been in a strong bullish uptrend, defined by two key trend lines. Recently, however, the stock broke through the upper boundary of this bullish channel, raising questions about its next move.



Weekly Chart Analysis
The weekly chart shows that after breaking through the upper trendline, the stock made a downward move, testing this line as a new support level. This was followed by a strong upward reaction, suggesting a potential retest and continuation of the bullish trend. However, the possibility of a fakeout remains, which could see the stock reverse back down to the long-term support level.



Daily Chart: Key Levels
On the daily timeframe, several key levels have emerged where the stock has shown significant reactions in the past. These levels—197 SEK, 217 SEK, and 230 SEK—are crucial for determining the stock's future direction. Recently, the stock bounced upward after touching one of these key levels and is currently testing another.



Support Line Identification
We can also identify a rising support line that the stock has respected, providing additional context for potential future movements.



Outlook: What's Next?
I anticipate that Nordnet may form a reversal pattern, such as a double bottom or an inverse head and shoulders, with the 217 SEK level serving as the neckline. If this scenario plays out, the stock is likely to resume its upward journey along the rising support line.

Trading Strategy
For those looking to trade this setup, consider entering a position near the long-term upper resistance line, provided there are confirmations on lower timeframes (e.g., reversal patterns, volume spikes, or indicator signals) that indicate upward momentum. If you suspect this is just a fakeout, it might be wise to wait for a clearer setup. Regardless, be sure to set a stop loss to minimize potential losses.