Silver (SLV) relative to S&P 500 (SPY) could be a falling wedge

2 мая 2021 г.

This maybe a falling wedge between silver and stocks - SLV/SPY
Not paying too much attention to exactly lines drawn but does look like it.

If this is true and it breaks out of the wedge upward that likely is an environment of either
1. stocks are weaker and silver stays flat
2. stocks goes but silver goes us much much more

Market is still not kind to Silver (or Gold for that matter - a bit ok for Platinum).
So would not necessarily jump on this but would be interesting to observe.

More interested in price but if you look at fundamentals
- increase demand for electronics and therefore conductive silver
- increase demand for "clean energy" will drive demand for silver

Although stock market is very messy or no clear trends in the short-term, the bigger trend seems to be still bullish.
And with more business opening up, it's not hard to imagine further improvement.

Above 0.06 in this ratio could be good risk/reward in favor of Silver.

We will see.

4 мая 2021 г.

Заметка

some non-trivial gains on silver but not enough to break the wedge yet
still at play

6 мая 2021 г.

Заметка

still not enough to break off of the wedge but still in play
could correct a bit for a better/strong base or could just continue to grind and breakout
either way, good risk-reward with a well-defined risk levels

14 мая 2021 г.

Заметка

wedge broken but weak that i would not consider it a breakout really
not the cleanest but still in play

19 мая 2021 г.

Сделка активна

small retest of breakout successful but weak so in play but cautious (staying small) pending stronger confirmation - this is early and i think there will be continued opportunity

20 июн. 2021 г.

Заметка

Still active but if price breaks that previous/last low, right is high.

There is a chance that falling wedge is still at play (except that the top range just moved a big higher).

But not scaling up here and ready for the possibility there is break down rather than break out/up.

21 июн. 2021 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

too much downside risk here - so closing trade

if this materializes afterwards as breakout of falling wedge then will re-enter then
for now, risk-reward is not compelling to go long