Индекс S&P 500Обучение
Looking at the Forest, not the trees.
Currently we're at a secular resistance level where the prices have reached the top of the uptrend channel. Signaling a painful, but necessary correction.
Price Structure.
The SPX has had a solid uptrend right after the recovery from 2009, this sets the start of the Bull market, so the 0.0 Fib level. Consequently it sets the the 0.618Fib level at the peak reached in 2007.
Four main Fibonacci levels:
2007 : 1652 (0.618 Fib)
2015 : 2243 (1.0 Fib)
2019 : 3105 (1.618 Fib)
2021 : 4400 (2.618 Fib)
Important Support/Resistance Levels to watch in the leg range (2191 - 4818):
0.764 Fib: 4171
0.618 Fib: 3792
0.5 Fib : 3485
After the market downturn and the recovery in 2009 an uptrend started that reached a new All Time Highs (ATH) in 2013, when the market tested the double top and broke out the range (RBO) to the upside to continue its path to a new ATH. It reached 1.0 Fib on 2015 when the perception of the market was that it was stalling, 2016 was a presidential election year, and Trump was gaining terrain but the market kept an eye on the events to take a decision. After the election the market resumed its uptrend, making HH-HL, and reaching new ATH. The trend was meaningfully dipped twice, which basically it was a retesting of the support through a painful correction that wiped off the four year gains. The current leg started after the near Zero interest rates set by the Fed. The level is currently at 2.618 Fib referred to the start of this Bull market in 2009. This usually signals a resistance and a test of the 1.618 Fib levels and everything in between, depending on how the markets are still wanting to buy the dip, which has been the constant since 2009.
There are some curious facts I found on this analysis, from 2004 and until until 2007 the market entered a rally, the interest rates were raised until it reached 1500 points, where the interest rates started to go down, unemployment started to go higher and the market hit an ATH. I set this point in the chart as 0.618Fib. When it hit bottom in 2009 the interest rates were at near zero and it started the bull market we're at in this moment. The interest rates started to go higher when the unemployment was at 5%, which signals a recovery. It was on 2015 when it peaked and it coincidentally hit the 1.0Fib referred to the previous ATH in 2007. The market continued and when the interest rates stopped going higher the market hit a new ATH in 2019, at this time the market hit a 1.618 Fib, the unemployment was at its very low level of 3.50, which again signals a very well recovered economy, and all of a sudden the pandemic put a halt in the economy and the unemployment spiked to 14.70, and the interest rates backed down to 0.25%. This market did the "V Shape recovery" and skyrocketed to 2.618Fib (4,500) where it has been dancing around.
If the pattern repeats itself then we could expect a technical level where the interest rates should start to go higher, this market should make a necessary correction and continue its uptrend. I forecast a correction back to 3000, where the technical level of 1.618 was reached. I have seen this kind of acceleration pattern before, as you can see the slope, which can be spotted in the middle line of the uptrend channel goes at a speed of 2.5 points per week and the legs had a slope of 7.2 points per week, meanwhile after the V shape recovery it accelerated to a speed of 26 points per week, almost 3x what it had been the normal speed, and it jumped from the lower part of the uptrend channel to the top of the upper resistance trend channel. Usually when we see this behavior the pattern is that it goes back to retest the previous resistance level, which basically would take it back to 3000. Of course several economic and monetary factors have to be involved for the market to do this kind of correction, it depends on the Fed who has to assess the unemployment rate, the inflation, GDP, fiscal policies, there's no magic number.
This market needs a correction so new buy opportunities at a discount can be created and this market smells like it's the time to cash out. These are not predictions, those are patterns and patterns tend to repeat in time.
"Patterns repeat, because human nature hasn't changed for thousand of years".
~ Jesse Livermore
Price Structure.
The SPX has had a solid uptrend right after the recovery from 2009, this sets the start of the Bull market, so the 0.0 Fib level. Consequently it sets the the 0.618Fib level at the peak reached in 2007.
Four main Fibonacci levels:
2007 : 1652 (0.618 Fib)
2015 : 2243 (1.0 Fib)
2019 : 3105 (1.618 Fib)
2021 : 4400 (2.618 Fib)
Important Support/Resistance Levels to watch in the leg range (2191 - 4818):
0.764 Fib: 4171
0.618 Fib: 3792
0.5 Fib : 3485
After the market downturn and the recovery in 2009 an uptrend started that reached a new All Time Highs (ATH) in 2013, when the market tested the double top and broke out the range (RBO) to the upside to continue its path to a new ATH. It reached 1.0 Fib on 2015 when the perception of the market was that it was stalling, 2016 was a presidential election year, and Trump was gaining terrain but the market kept an eye on the events to take a decision. After the election the market resumed its uptrend, making HH-HL, and reaching new ATH. The trend was meaningfully dipped twice, which basically it was a retesting of the support through a painful correction that wiped off the four year gains. The current leg started after the near Zero interest rates set by the Fed. The level is currently at 2.618 Fib referred to the start of this Bull market in 2009. This usually signals a resistance and a test of the 1.618 Fib levels and everything in between, depending on how the markets are still wanting to buy the dip, which has been the constant since 2009.
There are some curious facts I found on this analysis, from 2004 and until until 2007 the market entered a rally, the interest rates were raised until it reached 1500 points, where the interest rates started to go down, unemployment started to go higher and the market hit an ATH. I set this point in the chart as 0.618Fib. When it hit bottom in 2009 the interest rates were at near zero and it started the bull market we're at in this moment. The interest rates started to go higher when the unemployment was at 5%, which signals a recovery. It was on 2015 when it peaked and it coincidentally hit the 1.0Fib referred to the previous ATH in 2007. The market continued and when the interest rates stopped going higher the market hit a new ATH in 2019, at this time the market hit a 1.618 Fib, the unemployment was at its very low level of 3.50, which again signals a very well recovered economy, and all of a sudden the pandemic put a halt in the economy and the unemployment spiked to 14.70, and the interest rates backed down to 0.25%. This market did the "V Shape recovery" and skyrocketed to 2.618Fib (4,500) where it has been dancing around.
If the pattern repeats itself then we could expect a technical level where the interest rates should start to go higher, this market should make a necessary correction and continue its uptrend. I forecast a correction back to 3000, where the technical level of 1.618 was reached. I have seen this kind of acceleration pattern before, as you can see the slope, which can be spotted in the middle line of the uptrend channel goes at a speed of 2.5 points per week and the legs had a slope of 7.2 points per week, meanwhile after the V shape recovery it accelerated to a speed of 26 points per week, almost 3x what it had been the normal speed, and it jumped from the lower part of the uptrend channel to the top of the upper resistance trend channel. Usually when we see this behavior the pattern is that it goes back to retest the previous resistance level, which basically would take it back to 3000. Of course several economic and monetary factors have to be involved for the market to do this kind of correction, it depends on the Fed who has to assess the unemployment rate, the inflation, GDP, fiscal policies, there's no magic number.
This market needs a correction so new buy opportunities at a discount can be created and this market smells like it's the time to cash out. These are not predictions, those are patterns and patterns tend to repeat in time.
"Patterns repeat, because human nature hasn't changed for thousand of years".
~ Jesse Livermore
Отказ от ответственности
Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.