Индекс S&P 500Длинная
SPX vs Money Supply - Forecast until 2028
Dividing the SPX by the M2SL (Money Supply) is especially relevant in this economy.
In the DOT COM bubble + Financial crisis of 2007–2008, the market tops happened in September.
The market bottoms happened in February in both occasions.
How crazy is that!!!!! The tops and bottoms happened in the same month!!!
The crashes lasted 2.5 years and 1.5 years.
The next crash will be MAJOR (because we've been going up so much for so long) so it'll be more like the DOT COM bubble. I would say 2.5 years.
Check the monthly RSI. The next top will be when RSI hits that red trendline.
The next market top will be in one year, September 2023.
The crash will last 2.5 years like the DOT COM crash.
The bottom will be in February 2026.
Tops happen when :
- Unemployment starts rising.
- Yield curve starts going down
- Federal funds rate starts going down
During the last 2 major crashes, the inflation rate also went down. But it's the first time inflation rate has been so high in these conditions.
A crash happens when no one is expecting it! Too many bears right now!
I think we have another year of bull run before a major crash!
What is your opinion?
In the DOT COM bubble + Financial crisis of 2007–2008, the market tops happened in September.
The market bottoms happened in February in both occasions.
How crazy is that!!!!! The tops and bottoms happened in the same month!!!
The crashes lasted 2.5 years and 1.5 years.
The next crash will be MAJOR (because we've been going up so much for so long) so it'll be more like the DOT COM bubble. I would say 2.5 years.
Check the monthly RSI. The next top will be when RSI hits that red trendline.
The next market top will be in one year, September 2023.
The crash will last 2.5 years like the DOT COM crash.
The bottom will be in February 2026.
Tops happen when :
- Unemployment starts rising.
- Yield curve starts going down
- Federal funds rate starts going down
During the last 2 major crashes, the inflation rate also went down. But it's the first time inflation rate has been so high in these conditions.
A crash happens when no one is expecting it! Too many bears right now!
I think we have another year of bull run before a major crash!
What is your opinion?
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